** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 23.2N 141.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 140.7E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 26.7N 140.4E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 28.7N 141.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 23.2N 141.1E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 24.5N 140.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 25.6N 141.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 28.3N 143.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 23.2N 141.1E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 24.5N 140.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 141200UTC 25.6N 141.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 151200UTC 28.3N 143.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPZ21 KNHC 121440 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 121.1W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 121.1W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 121440 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CELL REMAINING. OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE SYSTEM. OLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST SOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW OF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA ** WTPH RPLL 121200 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1200 12 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATEL- LITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.9N 129.2E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTH- WEST SLOWLY AT 01 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131200 15.7N 128.5E AT 141200 15.3N 127.7E AND AT 151200 14.8N 127.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANINLA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 23.4N 141.0E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 24.6N 140.4E 90NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 141200UTC 25.6N 141.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 151200UTC 28.3N 143.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0618 SOULIK (0618) 970 HPA AT 23.4N 141.0E SOUTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 24.6N 140.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTNT80 EGRR 121719 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 121.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.5N 121.6W WEAK 00UTC 13.10.2006 17.9N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 17.8N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 17.7N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2006 17.6N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 17.1N 105.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.10.2006 17.1N 105.3W WEAK 12UTC 15.10.2006 16.0N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 15.8N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 16.2N 104.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.10.2006 16.5N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2006 16.0N 106.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.10.2006 16.5N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2006 16.6N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121719