** WTNT80 EGRR 120601 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 123.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2006 16.7N 122.8W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.2N 121.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 18.0N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 18.0N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120601 ** WTIN20 DEMS 120613 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL ,ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 21 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 22.6N 141.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.5N 139.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 24.6N 139.6E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 26.6N 140.4E 965HPA 38M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 22.7N 141.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 23.4N 140.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 140600UTC 24.3N 140.0E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 150600UTC 25.4N 140.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 22.7N 141.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.4N 140.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 24.3N 140.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 25.4N 140.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME STS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 22.7N 141.5E MOVEMENT NNW 9KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.6N 139.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 24.9N 139.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 26.2N 139.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BE STATIONARY. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BE STATIONARY. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 120801 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 121.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 121.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 122.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 120802 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006 OLIVIA HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUT OTHER THAN THAT... OLIVIA IS HAVING A BAD HAIR DAY IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA IS T1.5...OR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/08...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM DEPTH CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST... FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IF SOME CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME...A MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TUGGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE TRACK FORECAST. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...AND INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE ILL-DEFINED REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NORMAN. IF OLIVIA CAN SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THIS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME...THEN SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. AN ADDITIONAL FORECAST POSITION AT 48 HOURS WAS ADDED DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 17.6N 121.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 12 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY AT ZERO ONE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 140600 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 150600 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 23.0N 141.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 23.8N 140.6E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 140600UTC 24.3N 140.0E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 150600UTC 25.4N 140.9E 220NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 23.0N 141.4E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 23.8N 140.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 120949 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 450 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 475 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 620 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MOTION IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM SOULIK. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH RPMM 120600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 12 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY AT ZERO ONE METER PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEASWITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WIDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 130600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 140600 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 150600 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIXPOINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA