** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 22.0N 141.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 138.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.4N 137.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 24.0N 137.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 22.0N 141.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 138.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.4N 137.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 24.0N 137.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 21.8N 141.8E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 22.9N 140.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 23.8N 140.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 24.5N 140.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 21.8N 141.8E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 22.9N 140.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 140000UTC 23.8N 140.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 150000UTC 24.5N 140.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BE STATIONARY. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN BE STATIONARY. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.5N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.9N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.3N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.0N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.7N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 27.7N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 31.3N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 141.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 120234 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 AFTER BECOMING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL EARLIER TODAY... SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS... SOME ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WE EXPECT OLIVIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR... AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/6... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.3N 122.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 120234 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 141.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 141.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.5N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.9N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.3N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.0N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.7N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 27.7N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 31.3N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 141.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 120234 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 AFTER BECOMING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL EARLIER TODAY... SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS... SOME ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WE EXPECT OLIVIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR... AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/6... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.3N 122.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI ** WTPQ31 PGUM 120319 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 415 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 555 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 630 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. MOTION IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...22.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ MCELROY ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 22.3N 141.9E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 23.0N 140.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 22.3N 141.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 23.0N 140.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 140000UTC 23.8N 140.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 150000UTC 24.5N 140.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 22.3N 141.9E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 23.0N 140.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 22.3N 141.9E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 23.0N 140.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 140000UTC 23.8N 140.5E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 150000UTC 24.5N 140.3E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 120000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 12 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER . FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130000 0NE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST 140000 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AND AT 150000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALLL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA