** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 21.3N 142.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 138.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.4N 136.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.0N 135.7E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 21.3N 142.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 22.3N 140.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 131800UTC 22.8N 140.1E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 141800UTC 23.1N 139.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 111800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 111800UTC 21.3N 142.6E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 121800UTC 22.6N 140.1E WITHIN 90NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 131800UTC 23.0N 139.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 141800UTC 23.1N 138.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP21 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 21.3N 142.6E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 22.3N 140.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.8N 140.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 23.1N 139.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 21.3N 142.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 22.9N 138.9E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.4N 136.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 24.0N 135.7E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 142.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 142.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.8N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.2N 140.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.5N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.7N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.2N 137.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.0N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 25.7N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 142.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 112034 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.6W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 123.6W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.1N 122.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 112034 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 OLIVIA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE CLOCK IS TICKING AND WITHOUT A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OLIVIA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER MARGINAL SSTS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/6. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CURRENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF NORMAN. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL OLIVIA DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.1N 122.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 12/1800Z 17.0N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN32 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 124.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 124.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.1N 122.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 17.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 123.6W MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. AT 101118 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 862 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF LA_PAZ. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 112135 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 480 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 570 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...21.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ GIBBS ** WTPQ31 PGUM 112137 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN...CORRECTION TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 480 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 570 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...21.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ GIBBS ** WTJP31 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 21.6N 142.4E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 22.6N 140.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 21.6N 142.4E FAIR MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 22.6N 140.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 131800UTC 22.8N 140.1E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 141800UTC 23.1N 139.5E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT =