** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 20.9N 143.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 22.5N 139.3E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.3N 136.9E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.7N 135.8E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 20.9N 143.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 22.3N 140.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 131200UTC 22.8N 139.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 141200UTC 23.1N 138.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 111200 *** WARNING 111200. WARNING VALID 121200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 20.9N 143.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.3N 140.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 22.8N 139.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 23.1N 138.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 111340 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENS A BIT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 240 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 270 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 420 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 520 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...20.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 20.9N 143.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 143.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.8N 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.4N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.6N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.5N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.6N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 23.5N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 24.9N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 143.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 111444 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OLIVIA... THOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT AT 30 KT. THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS ADVECTED NEAR THE DEPRESSION. FURTHERMORE... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FROM THE SOUTHWEST... MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. THUS A SPINDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW. OLIVIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED... AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 065/6. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES PART OF LARGE-SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE MORE TO THE EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO OLIVIA BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE SOUTH AROUND THE LARGER REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SITUATION AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 17.0N 124.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 111445 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 1500 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 124.5W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 124.5W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 111545 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AGRIHAN HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 2 AM GUAM LST. NO WATCHES OR WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 275 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 540 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 143.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ GIBBS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 20.9N 142.9E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 22.3N 140.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 131200UTC 22.8N 139.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 141200UTC 23.1N 138.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 124.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 124.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.2N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.4N 121.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 17.6N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 17.8N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 124.5W MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. AT 101112 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1411 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 975 HPA AT 20.9N 142.9E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 22.3N 140.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ81 PGUM 111713 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-112300- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 12 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AGRIHAN HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 2 AM GUAM LST. NO WATCHES OR WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 275 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 300 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 540 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED AT AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. AVOID EXPOSED BEACHES AND REEFS...WHERE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT UNTIL THE SEAS SUBSIDE. ...WIND INFORMATION... WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH OF 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 11 FEET TODAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... 8.11 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD BEEN MEASURED ON PAGAN ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM SOULIK. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 111712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 116.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2006 17.0N 116.1W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2006 17.7N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.8N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 18.4N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 DISSIPATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 125.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2006 16.8N 125.0W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2006 17.0N 124.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.0N 123.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 17.7N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 17.3N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 16.8N 118.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.7N 137.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2006 10.7N 137.0W WEAK 00UTC 12.10.2006 11.1N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2006 12.1N 136.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2006 12.3N 135.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2006 10.3N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 10.2N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2006 9.6N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 10.6N 138.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 11.1N 138.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2006 11.7N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 11.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2006 14.8N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.1N 105.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.10.2006 18.1N 105.0W WEAK 12UTC 14.10.2006 18.2N 104.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2006 16.6N 108.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2006 15.3N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 10.7N 110.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.10.2006 10.4N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2006 12.1N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.10.2006 14.0N 106.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111712