** WTPQ31 PGUM 110633 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM AGRIHAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 365 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 480 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK PASSED ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...20.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTIN20 DEMS 110633 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------- DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTIN20 DEMS 110639 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------- DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 20.4N 145.0E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 22.2N 140.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 130600UTC 23.1N 139.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 140600UTC 23.3N 138.6E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 980 HPA AT 20.4N 145.0E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 22.2N 140.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.1N 139.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 23.3N 138.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 20.4N 145.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 22.5N 140.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 23.6N 139.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 23.8N 138.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 20.4N 145.0E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 22.3N 141.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.0N 139.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 23.6N 138.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 18 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 144.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 144.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.4N 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.1N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.5N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.2N 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.0N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.3N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 24.3N 135.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 144.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 110840 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0900 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS ** WTPZ41 KNHC 110859 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 IT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LARGE BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLIVIA EARLIER TODAY HAS ALSO DIMINISHED GREATLY IN COVERAGE. AN EARLIER 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED NO WINDS OF 35 KT OR GREATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT...ALTHOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAD FALLEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THEN...AND CONSIDERING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...OLIVIA IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECLINE THAN DOES THE GFDL...AND INSTEAD IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING. OLIVIA'S INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 045/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 124.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS ** WTPN32 PHNC 111000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 007 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 124.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 124.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.4N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.0N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.3N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.7N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 16 FEET. AT 1110000Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1423 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z. FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 110928 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENS A BIT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 400 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 500 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 20.7N 144.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 22.2N 140.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 130600UTC 23.1N 139.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 140600UTC 23.3N 138.6E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 980 HPA AT 20.7N 144.1E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 22.2N 140.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ81 PGUM 111017 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-111700- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENING...BUT MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 210 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 400 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 500 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...LIKELY BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN IN A SECURE LOCATION STOCKED WITH FOOD AND WATER. KEEP OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS STOWED. FLYING OBJECTS AND DEBRIS MAY MAKE VENTURING OUTSIDE HAZARDOUS. STAY AWAY FROM COASTLINES TO AVOID DANGEROUS SURF. KEEP BOATS SECURED IN SAFE HAVENS. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 11 FEET TONIGHT. SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... EIGHT INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN MEASURED ON PAGAN FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM GUAM LST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS. MUDSLIDES MAY OCCUR ON STEEP OR EXPOSED SLOPES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY MORNING. $$ HENDRICKS