** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 20.2N 146.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 142.7E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 23.1N 139.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.4N 138.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 20.1N 146.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 22.3N 141.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 130000UTC 23.8N 139.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 140000UTC 24.2N 138.4E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 985 HPA AT 20.1N 146.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 22.3N 141.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 23.8N 139.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 24.2N 138.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 110125 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO AGRIHAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 155 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 335 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 460 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...19.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTPZ25 KNHC 110229 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 117.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 110231 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FOR 12-18 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BE DISSIPATED BY DAY 3. LACKING APPRECIABLE CONVECTION...NORMAN NOW APPEARS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND THUS STEERED BY LOWER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/06. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.8N 117.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 110232 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.4W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.4W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 125.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.2N 124.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 OLIVIA'S DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM EARLIER TODAY...AND THUS NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR...ABOUT 25 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR MORE. AS OLIVIA MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS OR FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...OLIVIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THIS FORECAST. LATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 040/11. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OLIVIA IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS NORTH. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT OLIVIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMA...WHICH IS NOT FAR TO ITS EAST. SUCH AN INTERACTION COULD CAUSE A MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED BY THE LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT FAR FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.5N 125.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.2N 124.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 009 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 20.2N 146.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 146.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.4N 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.4N 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 23.1N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.3N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.4N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.8N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 24.8N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 145.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION, SUPPORTING A RELOCATION 55 NM (APPROX) TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 110301 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2006 CORRECTED FOR HIGH SEAS FORECAST WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 117.1W FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 110324 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK PASSING NORTH OF AGRIHAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 340 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 455 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL SLOWDOWN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH OF AGRIHAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 145.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/110335OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 117.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 117.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.3N 115.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.6N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 110300 *** WARNING 110300. WARNING VALID 120300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 985 HPA AT 20.3N 145.5E SOUTH OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 21 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 22.4N 141.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 20.3N 145.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 21KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 22.4N 141.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 130000UTC 23.8N 139.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 140000UTC 24.2N 138.4E 220NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN32 PHNC 110400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100330OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.2N 124.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.5N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 110453 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-111100- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN 340 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND 455 MILES NORTH OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. SOULIK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY AFTER IT MOVES NORTHWEST WELL AWAY FROM THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN IN A SECURE LOCATION STOCKED WITH FOOD AND WATER. KEEP OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS STOWED. FLYING OBJECTS AND DEBRIS MAY MAKE VENTURING OUTSIDE HAZARDOUS. STAY AWAY FROM COASTLINES TO AVOID DANGEROUS SURF. KEEP BOATS SECURED IN SAFE HAVENS. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 70 MPH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL OCCUR DURING HIGH TIDE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALREADY OCCURRING. SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY BEEN MEASURED ON PAGAN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCAL FLOODING IS LIKELY IN POORLY DRAINED OR LOW LYING AREAS. MUDSLIDES MAY OCCUR ON STEEP OR EXPOSED SLOPES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTNT80 EGRR 110549 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 117.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2006 16.3N 117.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.10.2006 16.5N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 125.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.10.2006 16.0N 125.7W MODERATE 12UTC 11.10.2006 17.4N 124.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2006 17.4N 123.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.4N 122.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 17.5N 120.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2006 16.8N 119.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110549