** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 149.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 143.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 22.7N 141.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.8N 138.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 19.2N 148.8E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 20.9N 144.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 121800UTC 23.0N 140.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 131800UTC 23.4N 139.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 149.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 143.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 22.7N 141.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 23.8N 138.4E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101800 *** WARNING 101800. WARNING VALID 111800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 19.2N 148.8E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 20.9N 144.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 23.0N 140.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 23.4N 139.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 101800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 101800UTC 19.2N 148.9E MOVEMENT W 16KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 111800UTC 21.2N 143.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 56KT 48HR POSITION 121800UTC 22.5N 141.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 131800UTC 23.4N 139.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 PGUM 101906 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 235 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 365 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...19.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM GUAM LST. $$ MARN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 102033 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 102034 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 30 KT NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...WHICH HEDGES CLOSELY TOWARD THE SHIPS...INDICATING FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A DRIFT EASTWARD...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH REFLECT A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.5N 117.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 102034 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.0W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.0W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND IS LESS BANDED THAN THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN SHEAR...BUT OLIVIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE EXISTING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO KILL OFF OLIVIA ONCE THESE WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE FORECAST DISSIPATION IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/12. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL OLIVIA SHEARS OFF AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. WHEN THIS HAPPENS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND NORMAN WILL GET...AND IF IT HAPPENS LATER RATHER THAN SOONER OLIVIA COULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.9N 126.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.4N 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.6N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.6N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.1N 140.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.2N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.4N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 24.4N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 148.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/102135OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 008 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 117.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.1N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.8N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.2N 115.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.5N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 19.4N 147.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 21.4N 143.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 121800UTC 23.0N 140.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 131800UTC 23.4N 139.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 102100 *** WARNING 102100. WARNING VALID 112100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 985 HPA AT 19.4N 147.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 21.4N 143.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 102144 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENING MORE SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 205 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 355 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 490 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 148.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MARN ** WTPN32 PHNC 102200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/102130OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 126.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 126.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.2N 124.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.2N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.0N 120.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 101251 *** ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 061010060000 2006101006 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 101300Z OCT 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351Z OCT 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091400)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. // CP, 97, 2006100718, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1590W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, CP, 97, 2006100800, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1598W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, CP, 97, 2006100806, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1608W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, CP, 97, 2006100812, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1616W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, CP, 97, 2006100818, , BEST, 0, 111N, 1620W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, CP, 97, 2006100900, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1623W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, CP, 97, 2006100906, , BEST, 0, 107N, 1627W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, CP, 97, 2006100912, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1632W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, CP, 97, 2006100918, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1638W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, CP, 97, 2006101000, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1644W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, CP, 97, 2006101006, , BEST, 0, 91N, 1649W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, ** WTPQ81 PGUM 102329 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-110500- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 205 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 355 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 490 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. SOULIK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY AFTER IT MOVES WELL AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... RESIDENTS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE MOVED TO A SECURE LOCATION WITH AVAILABLE FOOD AND WATER. OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD ALREADY BE STOWED. FLYING OBJECTS AND DEBRIS MAY MAKE VENTURING OUTSIDE HAZARDOUS. STAY AWAY FROM COASTLINES TO AVOID DANGEROUS SURF. BOATS SHOULD ALREADY BE SECURED IN SAFE HAVENS. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE WEST SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO UP TO 70 MPH TODAY. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 11 FEET OR GREATER THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY