** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 19.1N 150.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 21.2N 144.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 22.5N 140.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 23.3N 138.8E 955HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 18.9N 150.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 20.8N 145.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 994 HPA AT 18.9N 150.5E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 20.8N 145.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 22.6N 142.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 23.6N 140.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN21 PGTW 101300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 101300Z OCT 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351Z OCT 06// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091400)// RMKS/ 1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 091400). THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 162.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CON- VECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING CON- VECTIVE SIGNATURE COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL COOLING IN WHICH CONVECT- ION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A 100720Z SSMI/S IMAGE REVEALS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER. NCEP GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT PREDICTS DEVELOPMENT PAST TAU 12. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT IS CANCELLED. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 101317 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 330 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 325 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 420 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 545 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 150.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 19.0N 150.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 150.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.2N 147.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.4N 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.2N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.9N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.0N 138.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 23.6N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 24.8N 135.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 149.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 101432 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 127.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ41 KNHC 101432 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS NOW. A TRMM PASS AT 0721 UTC SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME BANDING STRUCTURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM. ONLY A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS...COUPLED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM 36-72 HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/5...BASED IN PART ON THE TRMM PASS. OLIVIA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND SHOULD SOON BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS OLIVIA SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE COHERENT STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWS A DEEPER FLOW MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS APPARENTLY WANTS TO HAVE IT BOTH WAYS...SPLITTING OLIVIA INTO TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH GOES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAKER LOBE THAN LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. I AM INCLINED TO THINK THAT OLIVIA WILL FOLLOW NORMAN'S LEAD...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OFF AND SLOWING DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 14.6N 127.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 101433 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.8N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.5N 115.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 101433 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND FARTHER SEPARATED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT SHEARED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE CENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE BECOME WIDELY DISPERSED AND ARE RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CLASSIFICATIONS. LARGE SCALE MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL ALL SUGGEST A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/GFDL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3...WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT NORMAN WILL BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET...ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS INDICATE A DRIFT INCREASINGLY EASTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REFLECT A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING FLOW OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET CLUSTER...INDICATING A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.0N 117.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.8N 117.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 115.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 114.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/101535OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.8N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.7N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.5N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.0N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 101550 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING... EFFECTIVE 200 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 280 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 285 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 530 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ MARN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 19.0N 149.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 21.0N 144.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 101500 *** WARNING 101500. WARNING VALID 111500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 992 HPA AT 19.0N 149.2E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 21.0N 144.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN32 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/101530OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (OLIVIA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.3N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.2N 125.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 123.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.7N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 20.0N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 101657 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2006 17.0N 117.9W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2006 17.2N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 17.8N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 18.1N 115.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.9N 115.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 18.6N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 17.5N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 17.2N 111.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2006 16.3N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 15.2N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2006 14.0N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 13.8N 103.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 14.9N 102.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 127.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2006 14.1N 127.2W MODERATE 00UTC 11.10.2006 15.9N 127.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 16.6N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2006 15.9N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 16.3N 125.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 16.0N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 17.0N 122.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 16.9N 121.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2006 16.6N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2006 16.3N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2006 14.1N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2006 12.2N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2006 10.7N 110.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101657 ** WTPQ81 PGUM 101658 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-102300- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AS OF 2 AM GUAM LST FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 280 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN 285 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 530 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THIS MORNING. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS UP TO 60 MPH LATE TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR GREATER EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO