** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 18.6N 152.3E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 280KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 20.6N 146.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 22.5N 141.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 23.6N 138.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 18.2N 152.3E POOR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 19.9N 146.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 120600UTC 22.0N 142.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 130600UTC 23.0N 140.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1000 HPA AT 18.2N 152.3E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 19.9N 146.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 22.0N 142.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.0N 140.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 100600UTC 18.2N 152.3E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110600UTC 20.2N 147.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 51KT 48HR POSITION 120600UTC 22.2N 142.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.1N 140.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100727 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWS DOWN A BIT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 430 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 420 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 490 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 610 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...18.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTIN20 DEMS 100735 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 152.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 152.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.6N 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.7N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.8N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 22.6N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.4N 138.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.1N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 23.7N 134.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 151.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 100844 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.7W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.7W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.5N 123.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ25 KNHC 100844 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.5N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.4N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS ** WTPZ41 KNHC 100854 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 RECENT MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE RANGE...30 TO 45 KT...IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT PROVIDE ANY CONCLUSIVE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED WINDS AROUND 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THE STRONGER RETRIEVED WINDS IN THE CONVECTION ARE BELIEVABLE. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST PERSISTS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THEREAFTER... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 HOURS...STRONG SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SOON BEGIN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. A SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL TRAVEL. THE UKMET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE GFDL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 14.0N 127.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 126.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 125.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 123.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 100900 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 NORMAN HAS SUSTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BECOME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER ESTIMATE BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC THAT DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS GREATER THAN 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORMAN WILL ALSO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS BEYOND 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND ANTICIPATES WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...TEMPORARILY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO...AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD OVER BAJA. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AND THE SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC HELPED VERIFY THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ONLY 360/2. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SLOWDOWN IS TEMPORARY AND FORECAST A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH NORMAN WILL TRAVEL AND HOW FAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.5N 117.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 117.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.4N 116.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100915 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 385 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...18.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPZ45 KNHC 100910 RRA *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006 ...RETRANSMITTED... NORMAN HAS SUSTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BECOME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER ESTIMATE BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC THAT DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS GREATER THAN 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORMAN WILL ALSO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS BEYOND 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND ANTICIPATES WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...TEMPORARILY WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO...AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD OVER BAJA. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AND THE SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC HELPED VERIFY THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ONLY 360/2. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SLOWDOWN IS TEMPORARY AND FORECAST A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH NORMAN WILL TRAVEL AND HOW FAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.5N 117.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 117.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.4N 116.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100920 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 CORRECTION TO LAST PARAGRAPH ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK STRENGTHENS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 385 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...18.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 100900 *** WARNING 100900. WARNING VALID 110900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1000 HPA AT 18.8N 151.7E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 20.4N 146.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 18.8N 151.7E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 20.4N 146.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 120600UTC 22.0N 142.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 130600UTC 23.0N 140.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 101000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100935OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 117.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 117.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.5N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.4N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.1N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.9N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. AT 101006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1029 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 101000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100930OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 127.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 127.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.5N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.5N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.5N 123.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.5N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET. AT 100600Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1616 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 101000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100935OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 117.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 117.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.5N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.4N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.1N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.9N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.0N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. AT 100600Z TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1029 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 101025 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-101700- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 385 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 380 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 585 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS UP TO 60 MPH LATE WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR GREATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF UP TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY. $$ HENDRICKS