** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SOULIK 0619 (0618) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 17.6N 153.4E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 19.7N 148.1E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 21.6N 143.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.4N 138.8E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100048 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 10 AM GUAM LST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 480 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 475 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 635 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON THURSDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION...17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 153.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 17.6N 153.2E POOR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 19.7N 147.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120000UTC 21.9N 142.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 130000UTC 23.0N 140.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1000 HPA AT 17.6N 153.2E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 19.7N 147.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 21.9N 142.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 23.0N 140.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 153.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 153.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 19.1N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 20.2N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 21.1N 144.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.1N 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 23.3N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.4N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 23.4N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 152.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 100230 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 NORMAN HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LASTEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY ALONG WITH AN EXPERIMENTAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN. NORMAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN IS LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THIS SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING WITH NORMAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION OR 360/05. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE AS IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE STEERING APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD A BIT MOST LIKELY DUE TO VARYING FORECAST STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NOGAPS... UKMET...CANADIAN AND GFDN MODELS ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUICKLY RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS. CONVERSELY... THE ECMWF...GFDL...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT VORTEX AND SHOW THE CYCLONE CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES NORMAN WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BE CAUGHT IN THE DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS NORTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.9N 117.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 18.6N 117.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 19.9N 116.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ25 KNHC 100230 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0300 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ21 KNHC 100230 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 0300 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.7W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.7W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 127.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPZ41 KNHC 100231 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS. ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...SOME SLIGHT NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...I.E. AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE...DUE TO PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...350/3. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE FOR ABOUT A DAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. THIS FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 13.3N 127.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 100325 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWS DOWN A BIT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 445 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 440 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 615 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 17.8N 152.8E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 19.7N 147.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 120000UTC 21.9N 142.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 130000UTC 23.0N 140.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100335OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 117.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 117.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.6N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.6N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.9N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 20.8N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.5N 113.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.0N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100400Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 117.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 15 FEET. AT 101000 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 1028 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // ** WTPN31 PGTW 100400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/1003300OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 127.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 127.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 13.7N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.8N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 100400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 127.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. AT 101000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1623 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 100433 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-101100- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWING DOWN A BIT... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 455 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 445 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 440 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 615 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 60 MPH OR MORE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR GREATER LATE THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPN32 PHNC 100400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/1003300OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 127.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 127.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 13.7N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.8N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 100400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 127.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. AT 101000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1623 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 100400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/100330OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 127.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 127.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 13.7N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 14.5N 127.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 15.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.8N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 24.5N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 100400Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 127.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. AT 101000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 1623 NM W OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER AND DTG IN REMARKS.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 100545 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2006 16.4N 117.9W MODERATE 12UTC 10.10.2006 17.7N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2006 18.2N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 18.9N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 19.3N 116.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 19.0N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 128.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2006 13.2N 128.0W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2006 13.7N 127.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.10.2006 15.1N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2006 15.4N 125.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2006 15.5N 124.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 15.0N 122.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 14.9N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 14.7N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100545