** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 17.5N 154.4E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 19.1N 149.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 21.4N 144.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 23.3N 140.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 17.5N 154.4E POOR MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 19.1N 149.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111800UTC 21.4N 144.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 091906 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 21W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 580 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 570 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 560 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 590 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 154.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM. $$ MARN ** WTKO20 RKSL 091800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0618 SOULIK ANALYSIS POSITION 091800UTC 17.5N 154.4E MOVEMENT WNW 17KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 101800UTC 19.2N 149.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 111800UTC 21.6N 144.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 121800UTC 23.4N 140.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 092029 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A SPRAWLING BAND OVER THE SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z...WHICH SHOWED A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS BUT A NUMBER OF BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS IN SHOWING THE DEPRESSION FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY BEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORMAN TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS...BUT IT WAS RUN OFF THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THEREFORE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR. WHILE SHEAR COULD DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 12.8N 127.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ21 KNHC 092029 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 127.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 117.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 117.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 092037 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI-S INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ANY EVENT...NORMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH SLIGHT BANDING FEATURES. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...A 1350 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT REVEAL ANY VECTORS OVER 35 KT AND AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...BUT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE OR SO DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF RIDGE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A DICHOTOMY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FOLLOW THE ABOVE REASONING AND TAKE NORMAN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODELS ALL TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.2N 117.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 154.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 154.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.7N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 19.7N 148.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 20.4N 145.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 21.3N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 23.3N 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.9N 135.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.1N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 153.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 17.5N 153.9E POOR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 19.6N 148.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111800UTC 21.4N 144.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/092135OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 117.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 117.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.9N 118.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.7N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.6N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.5N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.0N 111.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092200Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 118.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NONAME) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 092144 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 21W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 530 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 520 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 515 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 555 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 665 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 153.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. $$ MARN ** WTPN32 PHNC 092200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/092130OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 127.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 127.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 13.2N 128.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.7N 128.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.5N 127.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 20.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: 092200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 128.0W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. ** WTPQ81 PGUM 092250 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-100500- TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM SOULIK SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 530 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN 520 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 515 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 555 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 665 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 60 MPH OR MORE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR GREATER LATE THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN