** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 16.6N 156.0E POOR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 18.0N 151.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 091253 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 10 PM GUAM LST..1200Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 665 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 655 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 665 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 755 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...16.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 15.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPN21 PHNC 091400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091351Z OCT 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N 162.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY- CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 162.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.0N 162.6W, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 090434Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 090946Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101400Z.// ** WTPZ45 KNHC 091443 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE 55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE GFDL. REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND INDUCE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ25 KNHC 091443 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 1500 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 117.6W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 117.6W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPZ45 KNHC 091443 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE 55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT RAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES. WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY SHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE APPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE GFDL. REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND INDUCE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF SMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD OF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 155.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 155.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.5N 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.5N 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.4N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.5N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 22.2N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.4N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.6N 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 155.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 091539 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 21W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 21W FORMS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 620 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 610 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 630 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 720 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM 21W NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 21W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 155.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MARN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 17.1N 155.3E POOR MOVE NW 15KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 18.4N 150.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 117.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 117.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.8N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.5N 113.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.5N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091600Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 117.6W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.// ** WTPQ81 PGUM 091652 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-092300- TROPICAL STORM 21W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 10 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z..THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 620 MILES EAST OF PAGAN 610 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 630 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 720 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 60 MPH OR MORE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR MORE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 091750 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 117.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2006 15.3N 117.8W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2006 16.7N 117.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2006 17.4N 117.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2006 17.8N 116.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2006 17.9N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 17.8N 115.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 17.4N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 17.1N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.9N 128.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.10.2006 12.9N 128.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.10.2006 12.6N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 13.3N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2006 15.1N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 16.0N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 15.6N 126.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 15.5N 124.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 16.6N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2006 16.3N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091750