** WTIN20 DEMS 090610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJ NORTH EAST BAY BENGAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ,ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARBIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 15.7N 156.4E POOR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 17.3N 152.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.7N 156.4E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 15.5N 156.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 156.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.7N 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.8N 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.7N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.6N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 21.2N 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 156.4E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTPZ25 KNHC 090840 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.3N 118.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 118.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ45 KNHC 090855 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE COLDEST TOPS WERE LESS THAN -80 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC WERE 30-35 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEPRESSION FELL SQUARELY WITHIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS AT ABOUT 01 UTC AND 03 UTC...SO THERE IS NO WIND DATA FROM ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 28C TO ABOUT 26C DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 40 KT...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY. IN FACT...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 117.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.3N 118.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.6N 118.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 19.6N 117.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 16.0N 156.4E POOR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 17.8N 152.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 091000 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W MOVING NORTHWEST... AS OF 8 PM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN 705 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 710 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 795 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 156.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ81 PGUM 091038 *** HLSPQ1 GUZ001-002-003-004-091700- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W THREATENS THE NORTHERNMOST MARIANAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE ISLANDS OF AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... AT 8 PM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR AGRIHAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN 705 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN 710 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN 795 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. ...AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 60 MPH OR MORE LATE WEDNESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR MORE LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE