** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 14.9N 157.5E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 17.0N 153.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081629OCT2006// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 14.3N 157.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 157.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.3N 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.4N 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.1N 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 21.2N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 157.2E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W , LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 082128z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 081629Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 14.9N 157.5E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPZ25 KNHC 090333 *** TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0400 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W AT 09/0400Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.3W AT 09/0400Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPZ45 KNHC 090333 *** TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006 SINCE THE 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDINGLY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS NOW BEING ISSUED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER OF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE SHORTER-TERM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARDS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION... AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS...UNTIL RECENTLY...BEEN POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/8 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION IN DAYS 3-5 AS WE EXPECT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A SHALLOW LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0400Z 14.7N 117.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPQ31 PGUM 090341 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 9 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W NEWLY FORMED WELL NORTH OF POHNPEI... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS NORTH OF SAIPAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W. THIS INCLUDES AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN 775 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN 765 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN AND 840 MILES EAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...14.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 157.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 14.8N 156.6E POOR MOVE W 17KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 17.0N 153.0E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 090503 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2006 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.5N 116.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2006 14.5N 116.8W WEAK 12UTC 09.10.2006 15.4N 117.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2006 15.6N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 15.9N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2006 16.2N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 16.8N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2006 16.2N 116.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2006 15.7N 115.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2006 15.6N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2006 15.4N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090503