** WTIN20 DEMS 080655 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJ NORTH EAST BAY AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPN21 PHNC 081000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/080951ZOCT2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 114.1W TO 12.8N 118.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 114.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.4N 114.8W, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTH-SOUTH WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080737Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT AN ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED ALOFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI- MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091000Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 081000 *** RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 114.1W TO 12.8N 118.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 114.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091000Z. // EP, 90, 2006100618, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1090W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2006100700, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1103W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2006100706, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1115W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, EP, 90, 2006100712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1127W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 90, 2006100718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1137W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, EP, 90, 2006100800, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1147W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,