** WTSR20 WSSS 050600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 23.6N 152.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 151.8E 993HPA 18M/S P+48HR 31.6N 153.6E 996HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 27.0N 136.0E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 138.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.5N 142.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 42.4N 147.7E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 23.6N 152.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 26.8N 151.8E 993HPA 18M/S P+48HR 31.6N 153.6E 996HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 27.0N 136.0E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 25KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 138.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.5N 142.4E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 42.4N 147.7E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 27.0N 136.0E POOR MOVE NE 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 31.9N 141.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 27.0N 136.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 29.5N 138.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 31.9N 141.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 23.6N 152.0E FAIR MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 230NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 30.0N 150.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNW 16KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 071200UTC 36.8N 156.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 081200UTC 37.3N 173.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 23.6N 152.0E WEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 30.0N 150.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 36.8N 156.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 37.3N 173.6E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/051352OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 26.5N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 27.4N 138.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 28.0N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 28.4N 142.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 28.7N 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 136.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/051351OCT2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 23.6N 151.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 151.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.0N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 27.0N 150.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 29.8N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.8N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.3N 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 151.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ32 PGUM 051502 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST FRI OCT 6 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA MOVING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 515 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 715 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 845 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. RUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...23.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 27.2N 136.6E POOR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 31.9N 141.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 24.4N 151.8E FAIR MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 230NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 30.0N 150.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 071200UTC 36.8N 156.5E 170NM 70% MOVE NNE 21KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 081200UTC 37.3N 173.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 051726 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.2N 135.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2006 9.2N 135.3W WEAK 12UTC 08.10.2006 10.0N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 10.0N 134.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2006 9.9N 134.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 10.6N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 10.6N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2006 11.0N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 11.8N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.3N 125.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2006 10.3N 125.7W WEAK 12UTC 08.10.2006 12.6N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 13.2N 124.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2006 13.8N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 14.5N 124.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2006 14.7N 124.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2006 15.2N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2006 15.1N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051726