** WTIN20 DEMS 050615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL , ANDAMAN SEA,EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG 21 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT80 EGRR 050629 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.10.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.9N 108.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.10.2006 12.9N 108.7W WEAK 12UTC 08.10.2006 13.4N 109.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 14.1N 111.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2006 15.6N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 16.3N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 17.3N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2006 16.4N 120.5 WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050629 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 25.9N 134.8E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 29.9N 137.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.1N 142.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 42.4N 147.7E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 23.2N 152.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 26.2N 151.8E 993HPA 18M/S P+48HR 31.4N 153.2E 996HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 25.8N 134.8E POOR MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 29.0N 139.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.6E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 080600UTC 32.5N 148.4E 290NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 25.8N 134.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 29.0N 139.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.9N 143.6E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.5N 148.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 25.8N 134.8E MOVEMENT NNE 20KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 29.1N 138.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 31.7N 142.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 080600UTC 34.8N 145.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 23.2N 152.4E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 28.3N 151.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 070600UTC 36.0N 153.4E 160NM 70% MOVE N 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 080600UTC 36.4N 172.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 23.2N 152.4E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 28.3N 151.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 36.0N 153.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 36.4N 172.4E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA ANALYSIS POSITION 050600UTC 23.2N 152.4E MOVEMENT N 10KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060600UTC 27.5N 150.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 070600UTC 35.1N 153.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 080600UTC 38.9N 166.2E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. NWP RESULT IS MODIFIED BY CONSIDERING ERRONEOUS INITIAL FIELD OF NWP. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED . TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS FROM 050600 UTC. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN MOVE RAPIDLY TO EAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/050152SEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 016 RELOCATED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 25.8N 134.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.8N 134.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.0N 135.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 27.8N 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 28.5N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 29.1N 138.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 30.4N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 134.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS DISTORTED AS THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED 40 NM (APPROX) TO ITS CURRENT POSITION AFTER RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042115Z QUIKSCAT PASS CLARIFIED THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 26.5N 135.4E POOR MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 29.5N 139.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.6E 160NM 70% MOVE ENE 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 080600UTC 32.5N 148.4E 290NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 050946 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA MOVING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 480 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 810 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. RUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...23.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST FRIDAY MORNING. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 23.3N 152.0E FAIR MOVE N 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 29.2N 150.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 070600UTC 36.0N 153.4E 160NM 70% MOVE N 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 080600UTC 36.4N 172.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =