** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050035 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1035 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 CORRECTED HEADLINE ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 835 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 830 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 845 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBINCA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED BUT CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...21.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST THIS AFTERNOON. $$ MUSONDA/MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 25.0N 134.4E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 29.5N 137.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 34.9N 141.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 42.0N 147.3E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 22.8N 151.8E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.2N 150.2E 993HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.9N 150.5E 996HPA 16M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 24.5N 134.5E POOR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 26.6N 137.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 070000UTC 27.7N 139.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 080000UTC 28.7N 140.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 24.5N 134.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.6N 137.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 27.7N 139.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 28.7N 140.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 22.4N 151.8E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.4N 150.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 33.1N 151.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 35.6N 165.7E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 22.4N 151.8E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 25.4N 150.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 070000UTC 33.1N 151.8E 160NM 70% MOVE N 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 080000UTC 35.6N 165.7E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. NWP RESULT IS MODIFIED BY CONSIDERING ERRONEOUS INITIAL FIELD OF NWP. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 60 HOURS FROM 050000 UTC. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO EAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 050343 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 ...BEBINCA IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 890 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN 1050 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN 1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH... AND BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...25.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 25.4N 134.5E POOR MOVE NNE 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 27.0N 137.5E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 070000UTC 27.7N 139.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 080000UTC 28.7N 140.5E 290NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ32 PGUM 050353 *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA MOVING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 675 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 805 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. RUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST TONIGHT. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ32 PGUM 050358 CCA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 ADDED RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND ...TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA MOVING NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN 675 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN 805 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. RUMBIA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 240 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 151.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST TONIGHT. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 22.6N 152.5E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 26.0N 151.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 070000UTC 33.1N 151.8E 160NM 70% MOVE N 19KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 080000UTC 35.6N 165.7E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =