** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 20.4N 133.0E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 22.2N 133.5E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.1N 135.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.0N 138.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 22.7N 152.4E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.8N 150.2E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 27.9N 148.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 31.8N 150.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 20.3N 131.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 22.3N 133.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 22.3N 134.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 22.1N 135.9E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 20.3N 131.2E POOR MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 22.3N 133.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 061200UTC 22.3N 134.9E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 071200UTC 22.1N 135.9E 270NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 22.0N 152.2E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.0N 150.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.6N 149.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.8N 149.6E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 22.0N 152.2E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 23.0N 150.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 061200UTC 25.6N 149.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 071200UTC 30.8N 149.6E 290NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 041200 CCA *** TTT GALE WARNING 14 AT 1200 OR OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) (0616 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 20.3N 133.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RAIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 21MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 22.4N 134.4 EAST AND AT 061200 24.2N 135.6E AND AT 071200 26.0N 136.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 041532 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST THU OCT 5 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA MOVING NORTHEAST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 760 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN 765 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 835 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 835 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED BUT CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPQ21 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 21.1N 131.4E POOR MOVE N 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 22.3N 134.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 061200UTC 22.3N 134.9E 160NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 071200UTC 22.1N 135.9E 270NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 22.1N 152.1E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 23.2N 150.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 22.1N 152.1E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 23.2N 150.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 061200UTC 25.6N 149.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 071200UTC 30.8N 149.6E 290NM 70% MOVE N 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN21 PGTW 041630 *** SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041630Z OCT 06// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031651Z OCT 06// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 153.5E TO 24.0N 151.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 041500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 152.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 152.3E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040944Z SSMIS PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A 200MB LOW AND IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC, LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 051630Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 041200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 14 AT 1200 04 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) {0616) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AT 061200 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 071200 TWO SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 041717 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 7.7N 92.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2006 7.7N 92.6W WEAK 00UTC 07.10.2006 8.4N 92.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2006 8.7N 92.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2006 9.1N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2006 15.4N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 14.4N 94.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2006 15.6N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 17.2N 93.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 15.9N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 9.9N 125.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.10.2006 9.9N 125.2W WEAK 00UTC 08.10.2006 10.7N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2006 14.1N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 14.4N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2006 14.4N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 15.3N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2006 15.9N 125.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041717