** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 18.2N 132.6E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 133.7E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 23.2N 135.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.8N 138.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 19.4N 131.0E POOR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 22.0N 133.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 060600UTC 23.4N 135.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 070600UTC 24.0N 136.4E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 19.4N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 22.0N 133.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 23.4N 135.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 24.0N 136.4E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 22.3N 152.5E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 24.9N 150.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 28.0N 148.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 31.3N 149.7E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 040650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL , ANDAMAN SEA,EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG 22 DEG.NORTH OVER THE NDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 19.4N 131.0E MOVEMENT N 6KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 21.8N 132.3E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 23.8N 133.5E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 25.0N 134.8E WITHIN 270NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 21.9N 152.5E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 23.0N 151.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 24.7N 150.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 28.9N 149.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 21.9N 152.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 23.0N 151.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 060600UTC 24.7N 150.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 070600UTC 28.9N 149.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 21.9N 152.5E MOVEMENT WNW 6KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 23.0N 151.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 24.8N 150.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 070600UTC 28.7N 148.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 20.0N 131.2E POOR MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 325NM FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 22.0N 133.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 060600UTC 23.4N 135.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 070600UTC 24.0N 136.4E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 040600 *** GALE WARNING 13 AT 0600 04 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) {0616} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 050600 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 040600 *** T T T GALE WARNING 13 AT 0600 04 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) (0616) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 18.5N 132.2E FORECAST TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CNTER ESTMD CENTRL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS T1MPS NEAR CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FRM CNTER FCST POSITION AT 050600 19.7N 136.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 22.0N 152.4E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 280NM FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 22.8N 151.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 060600UTC 24.7N 150.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 070600UTC 28.9N 149.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 985 HPA AT 22.0N 152.4E SOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 22.8N 151.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 040958 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 4 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS DETERMINED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 785 MILES NORTH OF KOROR 725 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 885 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 905 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED A BIT AND ARE NOW 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...18.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST THURSDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY