** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 19.2N 130.9E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 560KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 22.4N 133.1E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 24.5N 135.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.5N 138.4E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 22.2N 152.9E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 470KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 151.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 28.1N 150.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 31.6N 150.5E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 990 HPA AT 19.0N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 21.9N 133.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 23.7N 135.2E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 24.3N 136.8E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 19.0N 131.0E POOR MOVE N 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 21.9N 133.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 060000UTC 23.7N 135.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 070000UTC 24.3N 136.8E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 990 HPA AT 21.9N 153.3E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 23.2N 152.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.2N 150.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.7N 149.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 21.9N 153.3E FAIR MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 23.2N 152.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 060000UTC 25.2N 150.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 070000UTC 29.7N 149.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 19.3N 131.0E POOR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 375NM SOUTH 240NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 21.9N 133.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 060000UTC 23.7N 135.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 070000UTC 24.3N 136.8E 270NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 040352 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST WED OCT 4 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA MOVING NORTH AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 815 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 1000 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 1020 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...18.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ GIBBS ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) 990 HPA AT 21.9N 152.8E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 23.1N 151.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 21.9N 152.8E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 260NM FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 23.1N 151.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 060000UTC 25.2N 150.8E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 070000UTC 29.7N 149.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 040000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 12 AT 0000 04 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) (0616) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAT TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050000 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 060000 TWO FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 040451 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.10.2006 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.5N 105.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2006 10.5N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2006 10.5N 105.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2006 11.5N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2006 11.9N 107.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2006 12.0N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2006 12.0N 110.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2006 12.3N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2006 11.8N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040451