** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 17.2N 130.7E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 550KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 132.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 23.0N 134.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 26.0N 136.5E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 17.2N 131.2E POOR MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 20.7N 132.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 051200UTC 23.9N 135.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 061200UTC 24.9N 137.5E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 992 HPA AT 17.2N 131.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 20.7N 132.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.9N 135.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 24.9N 137.5E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031200 *** WARNING 031200. WARNING VALID 041200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0617 RUMBIA (0617) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 20.6N 154.0E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 22.6N 153.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 23.9N 152.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 25.9N 150.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 20.6N 154.0E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 22.6N 153.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 051200UTC 23.9N 152.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 061200UTC 25.9N 150.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 031200UTC 20.6N 154.0E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 041200UTC 22.6N 153.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 051200UTC 23.9N 152.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 061200UTC 25.9N 150.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 031200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS RUMBIA 0618 (0617) INITIAL TIME 031200 UTC 00HR 20.6N 154.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 460KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 22.6N 152.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 24.0N 152.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 26.0N 150.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 031200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA ANALYSIS POSITION 031200UTC 20.6N 154.0E MOVEMENT NNW 4KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 041200UTC 22.7N 153.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 051200UTC 24.5N 152.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 061200UTC 26.3N 150.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPH RPLL 031200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 1200 03 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) (0616) WAS ESTIMATED ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.4N 127.1E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041200 16.4N 126.0E AT 051200 18.0N 124.7E AND AT 061200 19.5N 123.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 17.8N 131.2E POOR MOVE N 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 350NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 20.9N 132.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 051200UTC 23.9N 135.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 061200UTC 24.9N 137.5E 290NM 70% MOVE ENE SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) ANALYSIS PSTN 031500UTC 20.9N 153.8E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 230NM FORECAST 24HF 041500UTC 22.8N 152.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 051200UTC 23.9N 152.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 061200UTC 25.9N 150.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 031552 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 4 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA MOVING NORTH AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 710 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 725 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 990 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND 1025 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPH20 RPMM 031200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 1200 03 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA) {0616} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON PAGASA RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041200 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO EAST AT 051200 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 061200 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 031659 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031659 ** WTPN21 PGTW 031700 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/031651ZOCT2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 153.5E TO 24.0N 151.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 031530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 153.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030956Z SSMIS PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A 200MB LOW WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED BROAD LLCC, LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041700Z.//