** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 15.6N 130.7E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 550KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 17.8N 131.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.6N 132.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.0N 135.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 992 HPA AT 15.9N 130.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 19.7N 132.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 23.3N 134.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 25.3N 136.2E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 15.9N 130.6E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 200NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 19.7N 132.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 050600UTC 23.3N 134.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 060600UTC 25.3N 136.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 20.0N 153.8E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 21.8N 153.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA ANALYSIS POSITION 030600UTC 15.9N 130.8E MOVEMENT N 5KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040600UTC 17.6N 131.2E WITHIN 85NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 050600UTC 20.4N 132.4E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 060600UTC 24.4N 134.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ31 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 20.0N 153.8E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE LOW CLOUD VORTEX CENTER HAS APPROACHED TO DENSE OVERCAST AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030752 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL.SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, EAST CENTRAL ADJOINING NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LAT. 23.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030910 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA DRIFTING NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 620 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 660 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 970 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 1020 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 16.4N 130.8E POOR MOVE N 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 200NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 20.0N 132.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 050600UTC 23.3N 134.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 060600UTC 25.3N 136.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 030600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 03 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (BEBINCA){0616}WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON PAGASA RADAR,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AT 050600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 060600 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 20.3N 154.4E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 22.2N 153.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPMM 030600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 03 OCTOGBER TROPICAL STORM ( BEBINCA) ( 0616) WAS ESTIAMTED BASED ON PAGSA RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILO- METERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040600 ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE EAST AT 050600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 060600 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN EST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA