** WTJP22 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0616 BEBINCA (0616) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 992 HPA AT 14.8N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 16.9N 131.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 21.5N 134.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.8N 137.3E WITH 290 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 14.8N 130.7E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 200NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 16.9N 131.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 050000UTC 21.5N 134.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 060000UTC 25.8N 137.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BEBINCA 0617 (0616) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 14.8N 130.7E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 550KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 16.8N 131.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 20.0N 132.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 25.0N 136.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA ANALYSIS POSITION 030000UTC 14.8N 130.7E MOVEMENT N 3KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040000UTC 16.7N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 48HR POSITION 050000UTC 19.8N 132.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 49KT 72HR POSITION 060000UTC 23.5N 133.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 130.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 130.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.2N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.0N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.4N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.1N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 21.7N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 23.9N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 26.3N 136.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 130.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 19W CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT LOCATION HAS AGAIN BEEN RELOCATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT SATELLITE FIXES PLACE THE CENTER APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 030000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 0000 03 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (0616) (BEBINCA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 050000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST AND AT 060000 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030330 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST TUE OCT 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 565 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 610 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 940 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 1000 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.8 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH RPLL 030000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 0000 03 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM (0616) (BEBINCA) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVER NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 05000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NROTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST AND AT 060000 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ21 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 15.1N 130.6E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHWEST 200NM NORTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 17.3N 131.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 050000UTC 21.5N 134.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 060000UTC 25.8N 137.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 030536 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.10.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030536