** WTPQ21 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 14.5N 131.0E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 17.0N 131.1E 150NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTCA44 TJSJ 021842 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 20A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092006 200 PM AST LUNES 2 DE OCTUBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC ACERCANDOSE AL SURESTE DE NEWFOUNLAND... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE AVALON EN EL SURESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND. CANADA AMBIENTAL HA DESCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PENISULA DE BURIN Y LA PENINSULA DE BONAVISTA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTO A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 200 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 45.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 53.5 OESTE O COMO A 120 MILLAS...190 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. CON ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO PASARA CERCA DEL SURESTE DE NEWFOUNLAND MAS TARDE ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA BOYA CANADIENSE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 51 MPH...83 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON UNA RAFAGA MAXIMA DE 65 MPH...104 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CUANDO EL CENTRO PASO CERCA. ISAAC ESTA PERDIENDO LAS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES Y SE ESPERA QUE SE TORNE EXTRATROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 290 MILLAS...465 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MILIBARAS...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 200 PM AST...45.0 NORTE...53.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 40 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT34 KNHC 022033 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM AST MON OCT 02 2006 ...ISAAC BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AFTER PASSING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT HEADS FOR THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR... A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...47.1 N...52.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 022033 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2006 ENVIRONMENT CANADA IS DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 52.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......225NE 175SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 225SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 52.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.5N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...225NE 175SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 53.5N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...225NE 175SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.1N 52.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 022034 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISSAC HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AROUND 1600 UTC... THE CENTER MOVED BY CANADIAN BUOY 44138...WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 56 KT. ISAAC'S CENTER RECENTLY PASSED JUST OFFSHORE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT WERE REPORTED. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/35. ISAAC IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO SOON MERGE WITH THE LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS WEST. THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SMALL ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG AN EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 12-24 HOURS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SINCE IT IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 47.1N 52.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 03/0600Z 51.5N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1800Z 53.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 19W WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 129.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 129.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.1N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 16.1N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 17.2N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 18.4N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 20.6N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 22.8N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 24.9N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 129.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 19W CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT LOCATION HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES WHICH PLACE THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// ** WTCN31 CWHX 022056 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:56 PM ADT MONDAY 2 OCTOBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING ENDED FOR: ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY AVALON PENINSULA NORTH AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== POST-TROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS PASSED EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ENDED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. NOTE..HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE WOCN31 CWHX BULLETIN. END/PJB ** WTPQ31 PGUM 022120 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST TUE OCT 3 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM 19W SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 585 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 660 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP 1010 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 1070 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM 19W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM 19W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 19W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 129.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPH RPLL 021800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1800 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.1N 128.3E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031800 15.7N 126.6E AT 041800 16.6N 125.2E AND AT 051800 17.7N 123.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 14.0N 131.5E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 16.8N 131.7E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 021800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1800 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONEFIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031800 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX EAST AT 041800 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 051800 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM ARE4A ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=