** WTPQ21 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 15.3N 130.0E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 16.5N 129.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT44 KNHC 020841 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 HURRICANE ISAAC IS PERSISTENTLY MAINTAINING A COHERENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS FOR A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0002Z AND 0135Z SHOWED THAT ISAAC'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO T4.0 AND T3.5 RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF ISAAC AS WELL AS THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL SURFACE PRESSURES AS MEASURED BY BUOYS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE FORCE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. ISAAC SHOULD BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HR AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A SEPARATE IDENTITY. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST ABSORPTION WITHIN A DAY INTO THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISAAC. NOGAPS...IN CONTRAST...MAINTAINS ISAAC AS THE DOMINANT LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH ABSORPTION OF ISAAC IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THIS FORECAST WITH ISAAC'S WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. ISAAC IS ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT...THOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION AND TRANSLATIONAL VELOCITY HAVE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE SAME DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT DAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN DURING THE ABSORPTION PROCESS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 40.5N 58.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 45.0N 55.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/0600Z 49.7N 50.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1800Z 52.1N 46.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 020847 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0900 UTC MON OCT 02 2006 AT 500AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ST. JOHNS AND CAPE RACE. AT 500AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURIN PENINSULA AND BONAVISTA PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 58.2W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 200SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 58.2W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.0N 55.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 49.7N 50.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 52.1N 46.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 100SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 020857 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST MON OCT 02 2006 ...HURRICANE ISAAC RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AT 500AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ST. JOHNS AND CAPE RACE. AT 500AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURIN PENINSULA AND BONAVISTA PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES... 800 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE ISAAC PASSES OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...40.5 N...58.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.3N 130.0E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 18 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTCN31 CWHX 020854 *** SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:54 AM ADT MONDAY 2 OCTOBER 2006. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH =NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 70 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 110 KM/H ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER THE ABOVE REGIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC CROSS THE AVALON. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== HURRICANE ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTRE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER OR ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AVALON PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN FROM AN UNRELATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. END/CF ** WTPH RPLL 020600 *** GALE WARNING NO.1 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED BY TROPICAL STORM NENENG ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY, 02 OCTOBER 2006. THE SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED BY TROPICVAL STORM NENENG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SEABOARDS OF EASTERN LUZON, WESTERN AND EASTERN VISAYAS AND THE SEABOARDS OF MINDANAO. THE SEABOARDS OF VISAYAS AND MINDANAO WILL HAVE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDE- SPREAD RAINS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS. WINDS OF 40 TO 65KPH (22 TO 35KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND THE SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHT OF 2.5 TO 5.0 METERS. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL HAVE CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT RAINS. WINDS OF 40-75KPH (22 TO 40KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO HIGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.5 TO 6.5 METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEA VESSELS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATA TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00AM TOMORROW. ** WTPH20 RPMM 020600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0600 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030600 ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST AT 040600 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 050600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 15.3N 129.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 16.7N 129.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0600 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.0N 129.7E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 02MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030600 15.7N 128.2E AT 040600 16.3N 126.5E AND AT 050600 16.8N 124.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020957 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 2 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W SLOWLY MOVING WEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 595 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 930 MILES WEST OF GUAM 990 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST TUESDAY. $$ AHN ** WTNT34 KNHC 021137 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 800 AM AST MON OCT 02 2006 ...ISAAC CONTINUES RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ST. JOHNS AND CAPE RACE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BURIN PENINSULA AND BONAVISTA PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.7 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...42.0 N...56.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH