** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 16N 104E MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA = ** WTKO20 RKSL 020000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TD 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 020000UTC 16.0N 104.0E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 15.2N 130.2E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 16.2N 130.1E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 131.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 131.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.1N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.1N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.2N 129.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 18.7N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 22.1N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 130.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 020243 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0300 UTC MON OCT 02 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES CAPE RACE AND THE CITY OF ST. JOHNS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 58.8W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 200SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 58.8W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 59.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 57.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 47.8N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 51.5N 49.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 53.3N 45.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 58.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.2N 130.2E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTNT34 KNHC 020252 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES CAPE RACE AND THE CITY OF ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES... 1015 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA LATE TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD BEGIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...38.6 N...58.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 020252 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISAAC IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. ISAAC WILL SOON BE ENCOUNTERING A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 6-12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AND A LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESTRENGTHENING OF ISAAC AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS UNLIKELY...SINCE MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE BAROCLINIC ENERGY WILL BE UTILIZED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN ISAAC'S RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES ISAAC WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ISAAC...IT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ISAAC IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 020/23 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OR VERY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 38.6N 58.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 42.5N 57.2W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/0000Z 47.8N 53.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1200Z 51.5N 49.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 53.3N 45.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020321 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST MON OCT 2 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 557 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR 600 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 931 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 990 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY...BUT MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...14.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTPH20 RPMM 020000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 02 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030000 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST AT 040000 ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 050000 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ21 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 15.2N 130.0E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 16.4N 129.7E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 020000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 2 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.7N 130.2E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 02MPS ROGUH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FRON CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030000 15.1N 128.5E AT 040000 15.3N 126.8E AND AT 050000 15.8N 125.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 020531 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2006 HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 59.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2006 36.7N 59.3W MODERATE 12UTC 02.10.2006 42.3N 55.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020531 ** WTNT34 KNHC 020552 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 200 AM AST MON OCT 02 2006 ...ISAAC ACCELERATING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES CAPE RACE AND THE CITY OF ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES... 935 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD BEGIN WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...39.3 N...58.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTIN20 DEMS 020600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL. SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, EAST CENTRAL ADJOINING NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)