** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 15.6N 104.8E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 15.4N 103.8E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 15.6N 104.8E THAILAND MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 15.4N 103.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 15.6N 104.8E MOVEMENT W 16KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 020600UTC 15.5N 103.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 15.6N 104.8E MOVEMENT W 16KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 020600UTC 15.5N 103.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ21 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 14.7N 130.6E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 16.0N 131.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT24 KNHC 012043 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 2100 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 60.0W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......125NE 125SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 60.0W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.7N 59.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.1N 56.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 49.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 52.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 60.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 012043 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES... 1290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.3 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 012045 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006 ISAAC REMAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE EYE AND A INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -70C. A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND DATA T-NUMBERS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. INCREASING SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF ISAAC ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ISSAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ENERGY AFTER ISAAC LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISAAC HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS ACCELERATING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18 KT. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WESTWARD AND ALL THE MODELS NOW SHOW LANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND. THE UKMET AND GFS REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDL ARE TO THE EAST...AND FORECAST A TRACK NEAR CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALONG THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING... AFTER THE PASSAGE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHICH LOW BECOMES DOMINANT...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF ISAAC OR THE BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE SMALLER ISAAC WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE 72 HOUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ISAAC IS A TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THAT AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 36.3N 60.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 39.7N 59.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 45.1N 56.2W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/0600Z 49.5N 52.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1800Z 52.5N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTPN31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 130.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 130.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.8N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.8N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 17.8N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 19.0N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 20.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 130.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL POSITION REMAINS POOR DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOTION MAY NOT BE COMP- LETELY REPRESENTATIVE OF ACTUAL STORM MOTION. FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO REFLECT HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 012129 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST MON OCT 2 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 990 MILES WEST OF GUAM 1040 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN 625 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR AND 670 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND KEEP THE SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM KOROR...YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...15.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MUSONDA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 15.5N 104.4E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 15.5N 102.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 011800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 1800 01 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DAT AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 ONE SEVEN POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN EAST AT 031800 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 041800 TWO ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 14.9N 130.2E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 16.2N 131.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH RPLL 011800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 03 AT 1800 01 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.2N 130.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 17.1N 127.7E AT 031800 18.9N 124.8E AND AT 041800 21.3N 122.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT34 KNHC 012358 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 800 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST OR ABOUT 715 MILES... 1150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...37.3 N...59.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB