** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 15.4N 106.4E 980HPA 28M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.0N 103.0E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 15.4N 106.4E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 15.5N 104.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980 HPA AT 15.4N 106.4E LAOS MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 15.5N 104.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 132.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 132.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.7N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.1N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.9N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 132.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 132.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 132.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.7N 131.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.4N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.1N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.9N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 20.3N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 132.3E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 011448 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC TURNS TO THE NORTH... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...34.4 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT24 KNHC 011449 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1500 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 60.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.2N 59.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 47.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 50.5N 48.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 011454 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM AST DOMINGO 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC GIRA AL NORTE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL AVALON PENINSULA DE NEWFOUNDLAND...CUAL INCLUYE LAS CIUDADES DE CAPE RACE Y ST JOHNS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.3 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS...480 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA....O COMO A 930 MILLAS...1495 KILOMETROS AL SUR-SUROESTE DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...140 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...34.4 NORTE...60.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 200 PM AST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 500 PM. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT44 KNHC 011455 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006 THE EYE FEATURE OF ISAAC HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 70 KT...WHICH IS THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ISAAC WILL TRANISITION INTO A EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN NOT MORE THAN 24-36 HOURS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 355/11. IT APPEARS THAT ISAAC IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFDL IS TO THE EAST AND KEEPS ISAAC OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER PASSING NEWFOUNDLAND...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHICH LOW BECOMES DOMINANT...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF ISAAC OR THE BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE SMALLER ISAAC WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE 72 HOUR FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 34.4N 60.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 37.2N 59.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 47.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/1200Z 50.5N 48.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 011511 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST MON OCT 2 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W FORMS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 840 MILES WEST OF GUAM 895 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN AND 555 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS WILL CARRY THE SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM YAP AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ MCELROY ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 15.5N 105.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPLL 011200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 1200 01 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.8N 131.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 08MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 15.9N 129.1E AT 031200 17.0N 126.8E AND AT 041200 18.4N 124.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 985 HPA AT 15.5N 105.5E LAOS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 15.3N 104.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 15.5N 105.5E FAIR MOVE W 13KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 15.3N 104.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 011200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 02 AT 1200 01 OCTOBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METER PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST AT 031200 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 041200 ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 011713 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2006 HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 32.9N 60.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2006 32.9N 60.4W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2006 35.9N 59.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2006 42.9N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2006 47.8N 56.4W EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011713 ** WTNT34 KNHC 011740 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 200 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 500 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 885 MILES...1425 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...35.1 N...60.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTNT34 KNHC 011740 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 200 PM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 500 KM...NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 885 MILES...1425 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...35.1 N...60.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN