** WTIN20 DEMS 010620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-10-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG 24.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 15.6N 107.4E 965HPA 35M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 103.8E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 15.0N 101.2E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 970 HPA AT 15.6N 107.4E VIETNAM MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 15.5N 104.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 15.6N 107.4E GOOD MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 15.5N 104.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 15.6N 107.4E MOVEMENT WSW 12KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 15.3N 103.7E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINUOUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT44 KNHC 010851 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006 METEOSAT IMAGERY DURING THE GOES ECLIPSE SHOWED THAT THE RAGGED EYE OF ISAAC CONTINUED TO BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH T4.5...77 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY VALUES AS WELL. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT 0013 UTC IN SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 75 KT. CURRENT MOTION OF ISAAC IS 335/8...A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF SIX HOURS EARLIER. THE HURRICANE IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A RATHER SMALL DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A VERY LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ISAAC IS LIKELY TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL BE ACCELERATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTWESTERLIES. ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THIS RECURVING SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 72 HOURS THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THE THE LAST FORECAST. ISAAC LIKELY IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SOON BE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY COLD SSTS BEGINNING IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A QUICK TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OCCUR IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS ISAAC INTERACTS WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. ONLY THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RETAINS ISAAC AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN 36 HOURS. ALSO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT AS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE EXTRATROPICALLY-TRANSITIONED ISAAC AT DAYS 4 AND 5. AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH ISAAC'S VORTEX FROM A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SOMEWHAT QUICKER WEAKENING AFTERWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND GLOBAL MODELS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TIMING...THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 33.1N 60.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 35.5N 60.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 39.8N 58.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 44.6N 55.4W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0600Z 48.5N 50.9W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0600Z 52.5N 42.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 010852 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0900 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006 AT 340 AM AST...0740 UTC...THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 60.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 60.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 60.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 60.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.8N 58.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.6N 55.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 48.5N 50.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 52.5N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 010857 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AT 340 AM AST...0740 UTC...THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES... 450 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...33.1 N...60.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 15.5N 106.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 010931 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM AST DOMINGO 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC SE FORTALECE LEVEMENTE BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA... ...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA EL SURESTE DE NEWFOUNDLAND... A LAS 340 AM AST...0740 UTC...EL SERVICIO DE METEROLOGIA DE CANADA EMITIO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL AVALON PENINSULA ENTERA DE NEWFOUNDLAND...CUAL INCLUYE LAS CIUDADES DE CAPE RACE Y ST JOHNS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.1 OESTE O COMO A 280 MILLAS...450 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE PRONOSTICA MUCHO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...33.1 NORTE...60.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 800 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR LANDSEA/STEWART ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 970 HPA AT 15.5N 106.9E LAOS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 15.5N 104.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 15.5N 106.9E FAIR MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 15.5N 104.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH20 RPMM 010600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 01 OCTOBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 030600 ONE FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 040600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010900 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT34 KNHC 011151 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 800 AM AST SUN OCT 01 2006 ...ISAAC CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAPE RACE AND ST. JOHNS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N...60.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 011156 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL092006 800 AM AST DOMINGO 1 DE OCTUBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC CONTINUA HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE... UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA EL AVALON PENINSULA DE NEWFOUNDLAND...CUAL INCLUYE LAS CIUDADES DE CAPE RACE Y ST JOHNS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 800 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 33.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 60.2 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE NORESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL DE VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...140 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE PRONOSTICA MUCHO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 25 MILLAS...35 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARAS...29.09 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 AM AST...33.6 NORTE...60.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...985 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/FRANKLIN