** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 16.1N 108.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 104.6E 990HPA 25M/S P+48HR 15.7N 101.1E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 16.1N 108.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 15.8N 105.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 16.1N 108.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 15.8N 105.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010100 UTC 00HR 16.1N 108.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010000 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010200 UTC 00HR 16.1N 108.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT24 KNHC 010251 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2006 INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.9W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.2N 60.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.9W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 46.8N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 56.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 59.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT34 KNHC 010254 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2006 ...ISAAC TURNING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH... INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N...59.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 010257 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006 LATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING AND DISAPPEARING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GIVEN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OFFSETTING FACTORS IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THEREAFTER. ISAAC HAS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS OVER WATERS OF AT LEAST 26C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISAAC IS EXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER ISAAC WILL BE ABLE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO STRENGTHEN DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... OR INSTEAD BE ABSORBED BY A MORE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHICH COULD FORM TO ITS WEST. SHOULD ISAAC MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW...IT WOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE A BROADER AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONVERSELY...IF ISAAC REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BY SHOWING SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LITTLE CHANGE DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ISAAC IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/09. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE MUCH FARTHER EAST. REMAINING IN BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 32.5N 59.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 60.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 37.2N 60.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 42.0N 57.9W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 03/0000Z 46.8N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 04/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 05/0000Z 56.0N 30.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 06/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB ** WTTH20 VTBB 010000 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAMETYPHOON ANALYSIS PSTN 010000 UTC 16.0N 108.6E MOVEW 10 KTS PRES960HPA MXWD080KT FORECAST 24HF020000 UTC 16.0N 104.0E MOVEW 10 KTS PRES995 HPA MXWD035 KT 48HF030000 UTC 16.0N 100.0E MOVEW 10 KT PRES1000 HPA MXWD30 KT ** WTCA44 TJSJ 010301 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC GIRE UN POCO MAS HACIA EL NORTE... LOS INTERESES EN NUEVA ESCOCIA Y EN NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ISAAC. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.9 OESTE O COMO A 285 MILLAS...460 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE PRONOSTICA MUCHO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MILIBARAS...29.21 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...32.5 NORTE...59.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOR-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR RHOME/KNABB ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 010300 UTC 00HR 16.1N 107.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 340KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 16.0N 108.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 15.7N 104.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 960 HPA AT 16.0N 108.0E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 15.7N 104.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 010550 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2006 HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 59.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2006 31.8N 59.8W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2006 33.3N 60.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2006 38.5N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010550