** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC 00HR 16.0N 109.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 16.2N 106.2E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 16.4N 103.6E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 16.0N 109.7E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 16.1N 105.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 021800UTC 15.9N 102.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 16.0N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 16.1N 105.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 15.9N 102.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 301800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 301800UTC 16.0N 109.7E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 011800UTC 15.9N 105.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301900 UTC 00HR 16.1N 109.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 301945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 302000 UTC 00HR 16.2N 109.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTNT44 KNHC 302032 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006 CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL OF ISSAC THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/AFWA ARE INCREASING... AND THE LOCAL 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR T4.2... EQUATING TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. ISAAC STILL HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AND WATERS COOL BELOW 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO ICON... THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF GFDL AND SHIPS. GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING AFTER RECURVATURE BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE DUE TO VERY STRONG SHEAR FORECAST TO OCCUR BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THESE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO EXPECT ISAAC TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW UNTIL IT IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY A LARGER MIDDLE-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 310/9... THOUGH A SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS FASTER. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS BEFORE. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL EXTRATROPICAL ISAAC GET TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ECMWF...GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS WHIP EXTRATROPICAL ISAAC AROUND A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND ARE... CONSEQUENTLY... FARTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE OTHER MODELS... WHICH KEEP ISAAC MORE SEPARATE FROM THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL FORM A POWERFUL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND MIGHT BE SIMILAR TO THE STRENGTH OF EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE A FEW WEEKS AGO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE MODELS NOW HONED IN ON RECURVATURE ALONG ABOUT 61W... AND SHOWS SOME THREAT TO NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 31.6N 59.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.6N 60.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 35.0N 60.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 02/1800Z 44.0N 56.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1800Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 302032 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2006 ...ISAAC STRENGTHENS BUT IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...31.6 N...59.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 302032 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006 INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 59.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 59.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.6N 60.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 60.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 65NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 65NE 75SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 56.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 52.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...320NE 240SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 59.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 302038 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 PM EDT SABADO 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC SE INTENSIFCA PERO NO REPRENTA AMENAZA A TIERRA POR EL MOMENTO... LOS INTERESES EN NUEVA ESCOCIA Y EN NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ISAAC. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.5 OESTE O COMO A 315 MILLAS...505 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 80 MPH...130 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MILIBARAS...29.21 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 500 PM AST...31.6 NORTE...59.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...989 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 302100 UTC 00HR 16.2N 109.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 16.3N 105.8E 990HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 16.1N 109.2E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 16.1N 105.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 021800UTC 15.9N 102.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 302100 *** WARNING 302100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 16.1N 109.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 16.1N 105.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 302200 UTC 00HR 16.2N 108.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 302300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 302300 UTC 00HR 16.2N 108.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 20KM/H=