** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.7E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 106.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 15.6N 104.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 16.0N 110.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 011200UTC 16.2N 106.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 021200UTC 15.9N 103.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 301200 *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 011200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 16.0N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 16.2N 106.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 15.9N 103.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301300 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 *** 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 15.9N 110.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 110.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.0N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.7N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.5N 104.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 110.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 301345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301400 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.4E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT24 KNHC 301442 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1500 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006 INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 58.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 58.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 58.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.6N 59.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.8N 60.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 41.5N 59.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 58.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 301445 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006 ...ISAAC BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 SEASON... INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES... 600 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... ISAAC SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 301456 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC SE CONVIERTE EN EL QUINTO HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA 2006... LOS INTERESES EN NUEVA ESCOCIA Y EN NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ISAAC. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL OJO DEL HURACAN ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.7 OESTE O COMO A 370 MILLAS... 600 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE PARA EL DOMINGO. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...ISAAC DEBE PASAR BIEN AL ESTE DE BERMUDA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 75 MPH...120 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISAAC ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 40 MILLAS...65 KM DESDE EL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 125 MILLAS...205 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 992 MILIBARAS...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...30.9 NORTE...58.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...992 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT44 KNHC 301457 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ISAAC FORMED A RAGGED EYE SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1000 UTC SHOWED ONE BELIEVABLE WIND SPEED OF 63 KT. HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME. AFTER BECOMING OBSCURED A FEW HOURS AGO... THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION... A SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS AT T4.0... 65 KT... WHILE CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES ARE BOTH ANALYZING ISAAC WITH 64 KT WINDS. THEREFORE ISAAC IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS... THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AS ISAAC REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR AREA AND OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE... GFDL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE ITS EVENTUAL ABSORPTION BY A LARGER LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD TURN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ISAAC ROUNDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ISAAC SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT IN 36-48 HOURS... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE 96 HOUR TIME FRAME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 30.9N 58.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 31.6N 59.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 33.4N 60.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 36.8N 60.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 41.5N 59.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 03/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTTH20 VTBB 300600 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAMETYPHOON ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 15.5N 111.7E MOVEW 10 KTS PRES950HPA MXWD090KT FORECAST 24HF010600UTC 15.5N 107.0E MOVEW 10 KTS PRES970 HPA MXWD070 KT 48HF020600UTC 15.0N 102.0E MOVEWSW 11KT PRES995 HPA MXWD35 KT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301500 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.1E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 301500 *** WARNING 301500. WARNING VALID 011500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 16.0N 110.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 16.1N 106.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 301500UTC 16.0N 110.2E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 170NM FORECAST 24HF 011500UTC 16.1N 106.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 021200UTC 15.9N 103.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301600 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.0E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 301701 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2006 HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 30.4N 58.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2006 30.4N 58.3W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2006 31.2N 59.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2006 32.9N 60.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2006 36.3N 58.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2006 41.7N 57.1W BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301701 ** WTSS20 VHHH 301645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301700 UTC 00HR 16.0N 109.8E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H=