** WTPQ20 BABJ 300600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 300600 UTC 00HR 15.7N 111.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 15.3N 107.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 14.9N 104.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT80 EGRR 300605 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 57.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2006 29.9N 57.0W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2006 30.2N 58.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2006 30.9N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2006 33.3N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2006 36.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2006 41.1N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2006 47.0N 60.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2006 EXTRA TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300605 ** WTIN20 DEMS 300625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 23 DEG.NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTJP21 RJTD 300600 *** WARNING 300600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 950 HPA AT 15.7N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 15.9N 107.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 15.7N 104.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 15.7N 111.6E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 15.9N 107.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 020600UTC 15.7N 104.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 300600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 300600UTC 15.7N 111.6E MOVEMENT W 8KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010600UTC 15.7N 107.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT 48HR POSITION 020600UTC 15.2N 103.6E WITHIN 0NM PRES 995HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 300700 UTC 00HR 15.7N 111.5E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 300745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 300745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 300800 UTC 00HR 15.8N 111.4E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTNT34 KNHC 300831 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... INTERESTS IN BERMUDA...THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.0 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...30.3 N...58.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT24 KNHC 300832 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2006 INTERESTS IN BERMUDA...THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 58.0W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 58.0W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.9N 59.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.7N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 47.5N 54.5W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 125NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 58.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT44 KNHC 300847 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006 ISAAC LOOKS MUCH MORE TROPICAL THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -60C NOT FAR NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE FIRST SIGNS OF A 30-35 NM WIDE EYE. THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER ENOUGH FOR THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO ISAAC REMAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 36N56W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE U. S. TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMS. THIS SHOULD TURN ISAAC NORTHWARD BY 36 HR AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD THEREAFTER. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS. DEPENDING ON HOW ISAAC INTERACTS WITH THE LOW...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ISAAC TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 36 HR. THE SHIPS MODELS FORECAST A 65 KT INTENSITY IN 36 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE A 70 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL A 90 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AFTER 36-48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ONE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS HOW LONG ISAAC WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY. THE GFS ABSORBS THE STORM INTO THE BAROCLINIC LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HOLD ON TO IT FOR ABOUT 72 HR. BASED ON THIS... THE TIME OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW WILL BE MOVED UP A DAY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 30.3N 58.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 30.9N 59.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 32.3N 60.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 34.7N 61.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 39.0N 60.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 47.5N 54.5W 50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTCA44 TJSJ 300849 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 500 AM EDT SABADO 30 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2006 ...ISAAC SE MUEVE AL OESTE NOROESTE COMO UNA TORMENTE TROPICAL FUERTE... LOS INTERESES EN BERMUDA...LAS PROVINCIAS MARITIMAS DE CANADA...Y NEWFOUNDLAND DEBEN ESTAR ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ISAAC. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL. A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 58.0 OESTE O COMO A 425 MILLAS... 685 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN VELOCIDAD DE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KILOMETROS CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y ISSAC PODRIAN TORNARSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 995 MILIBARAS...29.38 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 PM AST...30.3 NORTE...58.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...995 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1100 AM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN ** WTPN31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 111.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 111.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.6N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.5N 108.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.3N 106.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 111.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 300900 UTC 00HR 15.9N 111.2E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 15.9N 107.0E 985HPA 28M/S P+48HR 15.6N 104.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 15.9N 111.2E GOOD MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 16.1N 107.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 020600UTC 15.7N 104.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 300900 *** WARNING 300900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 950 HPA AT 15.9N 111.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 16.1N 107.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301000 UTC 00HR 15.9N 111.1E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 301045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300900 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 301045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300900 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 100 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 301100 UTC 00HR 16.0N 110.9E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR W 15KM/H=