** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 15.8N 114.4E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.0N 110.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 15.6N 106.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 15.0N 104.1E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.7N 114.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 15.9N 110.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 15.7N 106.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 15.2N 104.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 15.7N 114.5E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 15.9N 110.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 011200UTC 15.7N 106.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 021200UTC 15.2N 104.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTIO31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 84.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 84.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.6N 83.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 19.9N 82.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 84.3E. TROPCIAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED ON SHORE NEAR BRAHAMPUR, INDIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 114.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 114.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 15.4N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.3N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.0N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.5N 106.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 113.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 291345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTIN20 DEMS 291410 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 29-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1400 UTC (.) THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS AND CROSSED COAST CLOSE TO GOPALPUR AROUND 1730 HRS IST OF TODAY,THE THE 29TH SEPTEMBER 2006 AND LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT.19.0 DEG N AND LONG.84.5 DEG E,CLOSE TO GOPALPUR.SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM. ----------------------------------------- ** WTNT44 KNHC 291429 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MAINTAINING ITS SMALL CORE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0958 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF ISAAC REMAIN AROUND 40 KT. QUIKSCAT ALSO INDICATES THE STORM HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN SIZE AND THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND EXPERIENCING ONLY MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS... PLUS INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL... SHOULD HELP INITIATE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. BY 36 TO 48 HOURS... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AFTER RECURVATURE. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AND SHARPLY DECREASING SSTS. ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING 290/5. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HOW LONG DOES THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUE BEFORE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEGINS. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING WILL HOLD NORTH OF THE STORM FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE STARTING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BY SUGGESTING A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS. IN GENERAL... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION... A TOUCH TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT TAKE THE STORM FARTHEST TO THE WEST ALSO MAKE ISAAC EXTRATROPICAL SOONER AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN ADDITION THESE WESTWARD MODELS AND THE GFS ALSO ABSORB ISAAC INTO A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FOR NOW ISSAC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER IF THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES... THEN THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC COULD BECOME INDISTINCT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE LOW BY 96 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 29.4N 56.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 29.9N 57.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 30.7N 58.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 31.9N 59.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 33.8N 60.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 41.6N 58.4W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/1200Z 47.0N 49.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/1200Z 49.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 291429 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 56.2W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 56.2W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.7N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 59.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.8N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 41.6N 58.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 47.0N 49.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 49.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 56.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 291433 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006 ...ISAAC A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...880 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...56.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 291501 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM EDT VIERNES 29 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...ISAAC UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO DE ACUERDO CON LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 56.2 OESTE O COMO A 550 MILLAS... 880 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...29.4 NORTE...56.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM EDT. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 291500 UTC 00HR 15.7N 113.9E 945HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 20KM/H= ** WTTH20 VTBB 291200 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAMETYPHOON ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 15.6N 114.4E MOVEW 12 KTS PRES955HPA MXWD085KT FORECAST 24HF301200UTC 15.7N 110.6E MOVEWSW 12 KTS PRES955HPA MXWD085KT 48HF011200UTC 15.5N 108.5E MOVEWSW 11KT PRES955HPA MXWD085KT ** WTPH20 RPMM 290600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18(FINAL) AT 0600 29 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS LOOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300600 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 15.6N 113.9E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 15.9N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 011200UTC 15.7N 106.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 021200UTC 15.2N 104.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.6N 113.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 15.9N 110.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 291645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 291749 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 55.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2006 29.1N 55.9W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2006 29.8N 56.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2006 30.1N 57.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2006 32.7N 58.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2006 34.7N 59.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2006 38.4N 59.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2006 43.6N 57.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2006 46.5N 54.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2006 49.7N 48.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291749