** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 15.0N 117.0E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.5N 111.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.2N 107.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.6N 103.9E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.2N 117.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 15.6N 112.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 15.6N 109.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 15.0N 105.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 15.2N 117.0E FAIR MOVE WSW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 15.6N 112.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 010000UTC 15.6N 109.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 020000UTC 15.0N 105.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290000 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290000 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (117.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPH20 RPMM 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 29 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITH ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTNT24 KNHC 290248 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0300 UTC FRI SEP 29 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 45SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 55.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N 57.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.9N 58.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.5N 59.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 59.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 44.0N 53.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 49.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT34 KNHC 290248 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...980 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...55.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 290300 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ISAAC HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS MADE IT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE CENTER LOCATION WITH INFRARED IMAGERY. SINCE THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS RATHER SMALL...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. THIS IS A CASE IN WHICH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE CYCLONE HAS SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. A SHIP WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0000 UTC REPORTED 33 KT WINDS...AND STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. MAKING THAT ASSUMPTION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIP REPORT. ISAAC HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS... IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD TURN ISAAC NORTHWARD ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DURING RECURVATURE. THE GFS AND NOGAPS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET IS TO THE EAST. GIVEN THIS LARGE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. ISAAC CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC SINCE ISAAC IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN COOLED BY HURRICANES GORDON AND HELENE...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITING FACTOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING AND IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MAKES ISAAC A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL SOMETIMES OVERESTIMATES THE INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 29.2N 55.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 30.0N 56.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 30.9N 57.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 31.9N 58.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 33.5N 59.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 59.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 03/0000Z 44.0N 53.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 04/0000Z 49.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTIO31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 85.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 85.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.2N 83.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 19.2N 82.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 85.1E. TROPCIAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 12 AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.6N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 15.8N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.8N 110.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.6N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.0N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 116.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// BT #0001 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 290300 UTC 00HR 15.1N 116.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.2N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 15.3N 112.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 15.2N 116.4E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 15.3N 112.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 010000UTC 15.6N 109.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 020000UTC 15.0N 105.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH RPMM 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 29 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON ( XANGSANE) ( 0615) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERYHIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 290458 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 54.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2006 28.8N 54.8W WEAK 12UTC 29.09.2006 30.0N 55.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2006 31.2N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2006 32.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2006 33.2N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2006 36.2N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2006 41.2N 60.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2006 45.2N 57.1W EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290458 ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290300 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 290445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 290300 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.