** WTPQ20 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 15.6N 118.1E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 16.1N 113.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 301800UTC 16.5N 110.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 011800UTC 16.1N 106.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 281800 *** WARNING 281800. WARNING VALID 291800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.6N 118.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.1N 113.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 16.5N 110.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 16.1N 106.6E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 15.6N 118.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 16.4N 112.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.6N 108.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 16.6N 105.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 281800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 281800UTC 15.6N 118.1E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 291800UTC 15.9N 113.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 301800UTC 16.3N 110.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT 72HR POSITION 011800UTC 15.6N 106.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281800 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 118.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 118.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.2N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.5N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 16.5N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.3N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 15.5N 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 117.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 282030 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 DURING THE DAY... THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC HAS BEEN CHANGING. THE LARGER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A MORE COMPACT SYSTEM. AFTER STRUGGLING MOST OF THE DAY... MODEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING IN A CURVED BAND AROUND THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN AS DEEP AS TYPICALLY SEEN IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE STORM MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER THAT WAS STIRRED UP BY TROPICAL CYCLONES GORDON AND HELENE. MORE IMPORTANTLY... DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PICTURES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH ALSO MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE DESSICATED SATELLITE APPEARANCE. A FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE 0845 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WINDS OF 40-45 KT WERE PRESENT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP TO 40 KT TO MATCH THIS ESTIMATE ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT HYBRID NATURE OF ISAAC. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... THE COLD WAKES OF GORDON AND HELENE COULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION... SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISAAC... ALONG WITH NEARBY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS... SHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BY LATE TOMORROW... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER AS ISSAC BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE-LEVEL HUMIDITY BEYOND 36 HOURS AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THAT WERE MOSTLY UNTOUCHED BY OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS... BUT THEN BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATER-TERM. THIS SOLUTION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS-GFDL-FSSE (FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE) GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW... THE MOTION OF ISAAC HAS SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT... AND IS NOW 330/7. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD... THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HELP TO PULL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BACK TO THE LEFT. THEREAFTER... MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS. A RATHER LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEYOND THAT TIME... WHICH SHOULD STEER ISAAC NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE OFFICAL FORECAST REMAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 28.9N 54.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 29.7N 55.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 30.5N 57.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 31.4N 58.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 32.8N 59.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 36.5N 60.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/1800Z 42.0N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 282030 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 2100 UTC THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 54.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS..125NE 150SE 50SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 54.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 54.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.7N 55.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.4N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.8N 59.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.5N 60.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.0N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 54.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 282031 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 ...ISAAC MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1020 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW INCREASE IS STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N...54.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTPH RPLL 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT1800 28 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (ZANGSANE) (0615) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RA DIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCA LS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291800 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC 00HR 15.6N 117.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 16.4N 112.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.4N 108.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.8N 104.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 28 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE)(0615)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSTIONS AT 291800 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 282100 *** WARNING 282100. WARNING VALID 292100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 955 HPA AT 15.3N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 15.9N 112.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 15.3N 117.6E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 15.9N 112.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 301800UTC 16.5N 110.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 011800UTC 16.1N 106.6E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 282245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 282100 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.