** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 15.6N 119.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H P+24HR 15.9N 113.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 16.1N 108.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.2N 105.6E 955HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 15.6N 119.1E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 16.1N 114.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 301200UTC 17.0N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 011200UTC 17.0N 106.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 965 HPA AT 15.6N 119.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.1N 114.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 17.0N 111.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 17.0N 106.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 15.6N 119.1E GOOD MOVE NW 16KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 16.1N 114.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 301200UTC 17.0N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 011200UTC 17.0N 106.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 281345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. ** WTNT44 KNHC 281433 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS A LITTLE SKELETAL... A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0845 UTC PROVIDES STRONG EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST 35 KT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM. THUS THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR... ISAAC... IS BORN. THE STORM IS ALSO EXHIBITING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS LARGER THAN AVERAGE NEAR 75 NM... AND ALSO AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY ON TOP OF THE CYCLONE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE HOVERING NEAR 26C IN THE PATH OF ISAAC... COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST... WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE INSTABILITY AND MORE CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7... A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN EARLIER. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS WELL DURING THIS TIME AND COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN THE CURRENT MOTION. THEREAFTER... AN ENORMOUS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STEER THE STORM AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH NHC GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ISAAC SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3-4 DAYS DUE TO IT PASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 28.2N 54.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 28.9N 55.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 30.9N 57.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 32.2N 58.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 35.5N 59.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 41.5N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/1200Z 47.5N 46.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT24 KNHC 281433 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1500 UTC THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 54.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 54.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.9N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.9N 57.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 32.2N 58.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 41.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 47.5N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTNT34 KNHC 281438 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 ...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1070 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...28.2 N...54.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART ** WTCA44 TJSJ 281448 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL042006 1100 AM AST JUEVES 28 DE AGOSTO DE 2006 ...DEBBY UN POBRE CICLON TROPICAL... A LAS 1100 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ISAAC ESTABA LOCALIZADO DE ACUERDO CON LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 54.7 OESTE O COMO A 665 MILLAS...1070 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE BERMUDA. ISAAC SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH Y SE ESPERA CONTINUE EN ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 1100 AM AST...28.2 NORTE...54.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 500 PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE/STEWART ** WTIN20 DEMS 281515 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC (.) A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AT 0900 UTC AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC NEAR LAT.18.5 DEG N AND LONG.88.5 DEG E,ABOUT 300 KMS SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP(42976).IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION . SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION(.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 281500 UTC 00HR 15.8N 118.5E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 965 HPA AT 15.9N 118.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 16.3N 114.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 15.9N 118.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 16.3N 114.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 301200UTC 17.0N 111.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 011200UTC 17.0N 106.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPH RPLL 281200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 28 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITH IN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 281200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 28 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 301200 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHE MANILA= ** WTIO31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 87.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 87.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 19.0N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 19.3N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 87.2E. TROPCIAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BRAHMAPUR, INDIA NEAR TAU 12 AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 290300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 119.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 119.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 16.7N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 17.2N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 17.1N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 16.9N 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.4N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.5N 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 118.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 281500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 281734 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2006 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 54.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2006 27.6N 54.7W WEAK 00UTC 29.09.2006 28.8N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2006 29.8N 56.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2006 31.0N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2006 32.7N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2006 33.5N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2006 36.2N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2006 38.4N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2006 40.9N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2006 43.5N 50.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2006 45.1N 45.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2006 45.7N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2006 46.5N 24.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281734