** WTIN20 DEMS 280623 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTH BAY, SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEG. NORTH OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 14.7N 120.4E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 15.7N 115.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.0N 111.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.3N 108.3E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 975 HPA AT 14.6N 120.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.3N 115.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 15.9N 111.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 16.2N 107.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 14.6N 120.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 15.3N 115.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 300600UTC 15.9N 111.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 010600UTC 16.2N 107.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 280600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 280600UTC 14.6N 120.4E MOVEMENT WNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290600UTC 16.0N 115.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 300600UTC 16.3N 111.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 010600UTC 16.2N 107.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 280745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 280745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280600 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTNT24 KNHC 280832 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.8N 55.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 30.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.1N 57.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 47.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT44 KNHC 280832 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR A DRIFTING BUOY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. ALSO...QUIKSCAT DATA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N58W. WEST OF THAT... BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOW SHOULD MOVE THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH TO AMPLIFY...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RAISE HEIGHTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...AND POSSIBLY A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND GFDL. AFTER 60 HR...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEPRESSION TO RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED DOWN AS WELL. THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CAUSING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS. AFTER 48 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 96-120 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 27.8N 54.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 28.8N 55.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 56.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 31.1N 57.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 32.3N 58.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 36.5N 58.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/0600Z 47.0N 46.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTNT34 KNHC 280833 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 AM AST THU SEP 28 2006 ...DEPRESSION JUST SHORT OF BEING A TROPICAL STORM... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...1100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...27.8 N...54.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 280900 UTC 00HR 15.1N 119.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 15.7N 115.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.0N 111.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.3N 107.5E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 280600 *** T T T STORM WARNING 14 AT 0600 28 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.5N 120.5E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290600 15.6N 116.1E AT 306000 15.7N 111.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 15.2N 119.9E GOOD MOVE NW 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 130NM FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 15.5N 115.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 300600UTC 15.9N 111.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 010600UTC 16.2N 107.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 975 HPA AT 15.2N 119.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 15.5N 115.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280900 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 281045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280900 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.