** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 14.0N 121.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 330KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 118.2E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 15.9N 114.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.1N 110.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 970 HPA AT 13.9N 121.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.7N 116.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 16.3N 112.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 16.6N 108.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 13.9N 121.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 15.7N 116.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 300000UTC 16.3N 112.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 72HF 010000UTC 16.6N 108.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 280145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280000 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (109.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT24 KNHC 280249 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 53.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 318 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 53.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.6N 57.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.6N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 38.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 42.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 46.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPN31 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 121.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 121.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.8N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.4N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.9N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.0N 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.8N 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.3N 106.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 15.1N 102.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 121.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTH- WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 280250 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 745 MILES...1205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.2 N...53.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT44 KNHC 280257 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY... MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AT 2132 UTC AND SSMIS AT 2309 UTC SUGGEST THAT IT IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...REMAIN 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WHILE SSTS COOL...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE DEPARTING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE GFS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS IT DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL. SINCE THE SHIPS AND GFDL ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...THE GFDL TRACK MIGHT BE A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK. INITIAL 28/0300Z 27.2N 53.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 28.2N 55.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 29.9N 56.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 31.6N 57.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0000Z 33.6N 58.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 38.0N 57.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 42.0N 52.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 03/0000Z 46.0N 45.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTNT24 KNHC 280306 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2006 ...CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 53.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 53.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.6N 57.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.6N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 38.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 42.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 46.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 53.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB ** WTPH20 RPMM 280000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 28 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (XANGSANE) (0615) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER EASTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KIOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 290000 ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 300000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTJP31 RJTD 280300 *** WARNING 280300. WARNING VALID 290300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 970 HPA AT 14.3N 121.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 15.5N 116.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 14.3N 121.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 15.5N 116.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 300000UTC 16.3N 112.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 085KT 69HF 010000UTC 16.6N 108.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 280000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 28 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (XANGSANE) (0615)DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.9N 121.7E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290000 15.3N 118.0E AT 300000 15.9N 114.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 280445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 280300 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 280522 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2006 26.4N 53.3W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2006 28.0N 54.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2006 29.3N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2006 30.1N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2006 30.6N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2006 30.6N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2006 32.4N 57.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2006 34.3N 58.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2006 DISSIPATED THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280522