** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 13.6N 122.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 15.5N 118.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 291800UTC 16.1N 113.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 301800UTC 16.6N 110.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 965 HPA AT 13.6N 122.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.5N 118.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.1N 113.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 16.6N 110.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 13.6N 122.7E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.1N 119.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 15.8N 114.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.1N 111.1E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 271800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 271800UTC 13.6N 122.7E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 281800UTC 15.3N 118.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 291800UTC 16.0N 113.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 301800UTC 16.3N 110.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 271945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 271800 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT34 KNHC 272031 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...NO THREAT TO LAND... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...53.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT24 KNHC 272031 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 2100 UTC WED SEP 27 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 53.1W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 53.1W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.6N 54.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.1N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.0N 57.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTNT44 KNHC 272032 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER-DEFINED IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT WRAP MUCH AROUND THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM HAS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. AN 1800 UTC SHIP REPORT ABOUT 60 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A RATHER HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1016.5 MB...A 21 KT SUSTAINED WIND...AND 13 FT SEAS. BASED ON THIS SHIP REPORT...12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/12...SINCE THE LOW- LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED AT LEAST ONCE DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO ITS WEST AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE GFS...UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL TAKE THE CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARGUES AGAINST ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 26.5N 53.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 27.6N 54.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 29.1N 56.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 31.0N 57.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 34.0N 58.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 02/1800Z 46.0N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 13.8N 122.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 15.7N 117.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 291800UTC 16.1N 113.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 301800UTC 16.6N 110.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 965 HPA AT 13.8N 122.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 15.7N 117.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 271800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 27 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) {0615) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281800 ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO EAST AT 291800 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 271800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 27 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.6N 122.6E FORECAST TO MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 36MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281800 14.8N 119.0E AT 291800 15.1N 115.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 272245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 272100 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.