** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 13.2N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 14.7N 120.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 15.8N 116.2E 925HPA 55M/S P+72HR 16.2N 112.9E 925HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 13.2N 123.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 15.4N 119.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 291200UTC 16.1N 115.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 301200UTC 16.1N 111.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 960 HPA AT 13.2N 123.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 15.4N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.1N 115.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 16.1N 111.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 271500 *** 1. TYPHOON 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 13.6N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 14.2N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 14.8N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 15.2N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.7N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.3N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 14.5N 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 123.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 271345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 271200 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 13.4N 123.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 15.5N 119.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 291200UTC 16.1N 115.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 301200UTC 16.1N 111.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 271500 *** WARNING 271500. WARNING VALID 281500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 960 HPA AT 13.4N 123.1E PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 15.5N 119.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 271200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 27 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) {0615) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 291200 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 271200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 27 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.2N 123.6E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 36MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 14.9N 119.7E AT 291200 16.5N 115.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE ADVISED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 271200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 27 SEPTEMBER TYPHOON (XANGSANE) {0615) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 291200 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 271645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 271500 UTC, TYPHOON XANGSANE (0615) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 271746 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271746