** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 12.0N 127.2E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 220KM P12HR NW 5KM/H P+24HR 13.0N 126.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 14.4N 124.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.9N 122.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 260650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-09-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA ,EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA LIES ALONG 24.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 12.0N 127.2E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 13.5N 124.8E 120NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 280600UTC 14.7N 122.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 290600UTC 15.4N 117.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 994 HPA AT 12.0N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 13.5N 124.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.7N 122.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.4N 117.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 260600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 260600UTC 12.0N 127.2E MOVEMENT NW 4KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270600UTC 13.6N 125.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 280600UTC 15.0N 122.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 290600UTC 16.0N 118.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 *** 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 12.1N 127.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 127.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 12.7N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 13.5N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 14.4N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 15.3N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.7N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 17.2N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 17.8N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 127.1E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. // BT #0001 ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 12.1N 127.1E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 13.6N 124.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 280600UTC 14.7N 122.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 290600UTC 15.4N 117.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 260900 *** WARNING 260900. WARNING VALID 270900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 992 HPA AT 12.1N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 13.6N 124.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 260600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 0600 26 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (XANGSANE) {0615} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 270600 ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 280600 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 290600 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA =