** WTSR20 WSSS 251800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 260000 *** WARNING 260000. WARNING VALID 270000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 11.8N 127.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 13.0N 126.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 14.4N 124.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 16.1N 121.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260000UTC 11.8N 127.3E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270000UTC 13.0N 126.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 290000UTC 16.1N 121.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 260000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE ANALYSIS POSITION 260000UTC 11.8N 127.3E MOVEMENT WNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270000UTC 13.0N 126.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT 48HR POSITION 280000UTC 14.4N 124.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 41KT 72HR POSITION 290000UTC 16.0N 121.7E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS XANGSANE 0616 (0615) INITIAL TIME 260000 UTC 00HR 11.8N 127.3E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 5KM/H P+24HR 13.0N 126.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 14.1N 124.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.8N 122.3E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 260300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (XANGSANE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 128.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 128.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 11.9N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 12.4N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 13.1N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 13.9N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 15.4N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 16.6N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.0N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 127.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (XANGSANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 260000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0000 26 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 270000 ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 280000 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 290000 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 11.9N 127.3E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 13.2N 125.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 290000UTC 16.1N 121.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) ANALYSIS PSTN 260300UTC 11.9N 127.3E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 270300UTC 13.2N 125.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 290000UTC 16.1N 121.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 260000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0000 26 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM (XANGSANE) (0615) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 270000 ONE TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST AT 280000 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 290000 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST. ALL SIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 260504 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 260504