** WTPQ20 RJTD 251800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 251800UTC 11.8N 127.5E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 261800UTC 12.7N 126.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 18W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 128.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 128.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 11.9N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 12.3N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 12.9N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 13.7N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 16.2N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 16.7N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 251800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 1800 25 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FRON TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 11.6N 127.8E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 250KMS RADIUS FRON CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 261800 12.6N 125.5E AT 271800 14.3N 123.4E AND AT 281800 16.1N 121.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 252100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 252100UTC 11.8N 127.4E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 262100UTC 12.8N 126.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 251800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 25 SEPTEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 261800 ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST 271800 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 281800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=