** WTPQ20 BABJ 250000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 250000 UTC 00HR 17.4N 108.0E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.0N 103.7E 996HPA 18M/S P+48HR 18.2N 98.9E 1002HPA 10M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 250000 *** WARNING 250000. WARNING VALID 260000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 984 HPA AT 40.3N 159.4E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 40 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 45.3N 168.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 49.1N 172.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 964 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 250000UTC 40.3N 159.4E POOR MOVE ENE 40KT PRES 984HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260000UTC 49.1N 172.8E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 250100 UTC 00HR 17.6N 107.3E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 30KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 250300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 107.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 107.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.2N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 17.2N 104.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 106.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LOW-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE STORM CENTER IS JUST OFFSHORE AND IS CONTINUING TO TRACK TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 250145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 250200 UTC 00HR 17.6N 106.5E 998HPA 15M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 250000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 250000 UTC IS POOR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 12 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 250300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 250300 UTC 00HR 17.6N 106.3E 998HPA 15M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 250300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 250300UTC 41.2N 162.0E POOR MOVE ENE 40KT PRES 984HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 260300UTC 49.5N 173.0E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 250300 *** WARNING 250300. WARNING VALID 260300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 984 HPA AT 41.2N 162.0E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 40 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 45.7N 168.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 49.5N 173.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 964 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 250445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 250445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 250300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 250520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250520