** WTPQ20 BABJ 241200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241200 UTC 00HR 17.0N 109.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 105.7E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.1N 101.9E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 241200 *** WARNING 241200. WARNING VALID 251200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980 HPA AT 36.4N 151.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 43.6N 167.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 36.4N 151.3E POOR MOVE ENE 20KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 43.6N 167.3E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241300 UTC 00HR 17.0N 109.6E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 241200UTC 16.4N 109.5E POOR MOVE W 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 251200UTC 16.9N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 241345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT33 KNHC 241426 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2006 ...HELENE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... SATELLITE IMAGES AND OTHER DATA INDICATE THAT HELENE HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IT IS NOW AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST OR ABOUT 595 MILES...955 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 430 MILES...695 KM FROM THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...40.9 N...37.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTNT23 KNHC 241426 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 37.5W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 125SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT.......240NE 300SE 375SW 360NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 450SE 700SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 37.5W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 125SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 375SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 31.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 75NE 100SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 44.2N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 45.1N 23.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 48.5N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 37.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND ALSO BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTNT43 KNHC 241426 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER OF HELENE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED DEFINITIVE FRONTAL FEATURES WITH EXTENSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. MOREOVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0900 UTC SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BECOMING REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS IS TYPICAL OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES BASED ON THESE DATA IS SHOWING A WARM CORE...WE BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A WARM SECLUSION THAT IS COMMON IN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES. BASED ON THE ABOVE ANALYSES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS CONSIDERED COMPLETE... AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/18...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. IN LIGHT OF THE MODEL SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE 65 KT VECTORS AND...ASSUMING GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A CONTINUED SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL IT COMBINES WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC AND BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 40.9N 37.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/1200Z 43.6N 31.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 26/0000Z 44.2N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/1200Z 45.1N 23.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241400 UTC 00HR 17.0N 109.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241500 UTC 00HR 17.1N 109.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 241500 *** WARNING 241500. WARNING VALID 251500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 980 HPA AT 36.9N 152.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 23 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 44.3N 168.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 36.9N 152.4E POOR MOVE ENE 23KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 70NM SOUTHEAST 50NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 44.3N 168.5E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 241500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 241500UTC 16.8N 109.1E POOR MOVE NW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 251500UTC 16.8N 107.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241600 UTC 00HR 17.1N 109.4E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241700 UTC 00HR 17.1N 109.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 241645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 241500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 251500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 241736 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 40.0N 38.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2006 40.0N 38.5W STRONG 00UTC 25.09.2006 43.3N 34.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2006 44.1N 32.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2006 44.2N 28.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241736