** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 16.3N 110.0E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.4N 106.5E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 17.9N 102.5E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 240600 UTC 00HR 35.4N 149.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR ENE 40KM/H P+24HR 41.4N 159.7E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 46.8N 176.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 35.3N 149.1E FAIR MOVE NE 22KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 41.6N 163.7E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP22 RJTD 240600 *** WARNING 240600. WARNING VALID 250600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 975 HPA AT 35.3N 149.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 22 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 38.4N 155.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 41.6N 163.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 240600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TY 0614 YAGI ANALYSIS POSITION 240600UTC 35.3N 149.1E MOVEMENT NE 22KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 250600UTC 41.9N 163.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 990HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 240600UTC 16.3N 110.3E POOR MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 250600UTC 17.2N 107.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.8 111.2 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(GLOBAL MODEL) ON TD LOCATED AT 15.8 111.2 AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 24 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER AND CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO LOW SST AREA. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240700 UTC 00HR 16.6N 110.0E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.3N 110.3E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240800 UTC 00HR 16.8N 110.0E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTNT43 KNHC 240835 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006 HELENE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS OF IT NOW THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT BASED ON THE EARIER QUIKSCAT DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. HOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHING HELENE COULD KEEP THE WINDS UP...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS SHOWN UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF IT HASN'T ALREADY LOST IT'S DEEP CONVECTION BY THEN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF DROPPING HELENE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE AZORES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING OF THE TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH OF HELENE...WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 39.9N 39.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 41.6N 36.6W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 33.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1800Z 44.5N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0600Z 45.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0600Z 47.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT23 KNHC 240835 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.9W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 200NW. 34 KT.......325NE 230SE 250SW 325NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 450SE 700SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 39.9W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 41.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 41.6N 36.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 130SW 200NW. 34 KT...325NE 230SE 250SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 43.2N 33.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 75SE 125SW 100NW. 50 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...275NE 300SE 300SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...125NE 175SE 175SW 175NW. 34 KT...275NE 300SE 300SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 45.0N 26.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 47.0N 18.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...175NE 225SE 225SW 225NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTNT33 KNHC 240836 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2006 ...HELENE CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...COULD SPREAD GALES OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT... AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES... 1135 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...39.9 N...39.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240900 UTC 00HR 16.9N 109.9E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.5N 106.4E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 17.8N 102.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 240900 *** WARNING 240900. WARNING VALID 250900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 975 HPA AT 35.9N 149.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 23 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 42.5N 164.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 35.9N 149.8E POOR MOVE NE 23KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 42.5N 164.4E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 240900UTC 16.2N 109.8E POOR MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 250900UTC 17.0N 107.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241000 UTC 00HR 17.0N 109.8E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 241045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 241100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 241100 UTC 00HR 17.0N 109.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H=