** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS YAGI 0614 (0614) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 34.0N 147.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NE 45KM/H P+24HR 41.4N 155.9E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 45.8N 167.3E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 240000 *** WARNING 240000. WARNING VALID 250000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 965 HPA AT 33.8N 147.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 39.7N 159.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 45.4N 174.5E WITH 190 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 33.8N 147.0E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 39.7N 159.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 28KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 260000UTC 45.4N 174.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 240000UTC 15.8N 111.2E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 250000UTC 17.2N 107.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240000 UTC 00HR 15.9N 111.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.3N 107.4E 985HPA 23M/S P+48HR 17.9N 102.9E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240100 UTC 00HR 15.9N 111.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTIN01 DEMS 240100 *** SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII(N) NORTH OF EQUATOR VALID FOR 12 HRS. FROM 2006 0100 UTC OF: 24 09 2006 PART I: THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (MUKDA) OVER NE AND ADJ.EC- ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STAIONARY AND WEAKEND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM (.) IT LAY CENTRED AT 0230 HRS IST OF TODAY THE 24TH SEPT.2006 NEAR LAT. 21.O DEG N AND LONG. 67.0 DEG E ABOUT 280 KMS SW OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT) (.) IT LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NE-LY DIRCTION AND CROSS GUJRAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALLA BY TODAY EVENING/ NIGHT (.) NOTE: NEXT SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL ORIGINATE AT 1200 UTC ON DATED 24TH IN ADDITION TO ROUTINE TWO DAILY BULLETINS (.) ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT . ** WTSS20 VHHH 240145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (111.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240200 UTC 00HR 16.0N 111.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 240300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231353ZSEP2006// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 16W (YAGI) WARNING NR 029 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 33.8N 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 24 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 37.3N 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 41.0N 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 148.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 16W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 240231 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006 ...HELENE STUBBORNLY HOLDS ON TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT 795 MILES... 1285 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HELENE LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375 MILES...600 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...39.1 N...41.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTNT23 KNHC 240231 *** TCMAT3 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 41.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 59 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 200NW. 34 KT.......325NE 230SE 250SW 325NW. 12 FT SEAS..500NE 400SE 400SW 500NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 41.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 40.5N 38.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 130SW 200NW. 34 KT...325NE 230SE 250SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 100SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 200NW. 34 KT...325NE 300SE 300SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.8N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 100SE 150SW 120NW. 50 KT...175NE 175SE 175SW 200NW. 34 KT...325NE 300SE 300SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 45.0N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...325NE 325SE 325SW 325NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 47.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 48.5N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0614 YAGI (0614) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME WARMER FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TY WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.= ** WTNT43 KNHC 240237 *** TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006 HELENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO SIX HOURS AGO...AND CONVECTION HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 2025 UTC...STILL SHOWED THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE WHICH SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. THUS...WE ARE KEEPING HELENE A 75 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANALYSIS OF A 2132 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE WIND RADII HAVE CHANGED IN ORIENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS PASS... AND THE INITIAL WIND RADII REFLECT THESE WINDS. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN DETERMINING WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE. BASED UPON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE...THIS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 6 TO 18 HOURS...WITH THE HELP OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AFTER WHICH...SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A FASTER WEAKENING RATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASED BAROCLINIC ENERGY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 070/20...BUT A SHORTER 6-HOUR MOTION COULD BE CLOSER TO 25 KT. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. HELENE SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EAST- NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SOUTHWARD TURN. SINCE THE GFS MODEL LACKS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...IT HAS BEEN GIVEN VERY LITTLE WEIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE LATER PERIODS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE GFDL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 39.1N 41.7W 75 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 40.5N 38.1W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/1200Z 43.8N 31.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 26/0000Z 45.0N 27.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 27/0000Z 47.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 28/0000Z 48.5N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN ** WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.8N 111.2E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 240000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TD WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240300 UTC 00HR 16.0N 111.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614) ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 34.2N 147.8E FAIR MOVE NE 20KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 40.6N 160.4E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 29KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 260000UTC 45.4N 174.5E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP32 RJTD 240300 *** WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0614 YAGI (0614) 965 HPA AT 34.2N 147.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 40.6N 160.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 240300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 240300UTC 16.7N 111.5E FAIR MOVE N 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 250300UTC 17.4N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240400 UTC 00HR 16.1N 111.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 240445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 240300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 250300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 240519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2006 HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.1N 42.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2006 38.1N 42.9W INTENSE 12UTC 24.09.2006 40.3N 38.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2006 42.8N 35.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2006 42.5N 32.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2006 43.0N 29.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2006 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240519 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 240500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NAMELESS 0615 (06XX) INITIAL TIME 240500 UTC 00HR 16.5N 110.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H=